Oxford East
South East · Borough constituency · Oxford borough
About the Oxford East constituency
Oxford East is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Anneliese Dodds (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.7% to 16.6% for other parties, a majority of 14,465 votes on a 54.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.2% and the Greens on 20.1%, a margin of 21.1 points.
Who lives in Oxford East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Oxford East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Oxford East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Oxford East within Oxford
Oxford East sits entirely within Oxford Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barton & Sandhills | Labour 48.7%vs Others 16.8% | May 2026 Labour 36.9%vs Reform 21.5% | Labour share -11.7pp | 33.9% |
| Blackbird Leys | Labour 51.6%vs Others 18.1% | May 2026 Labour 48.5%vs Reform 27.8% | Labour share -3.2pp | 29.7% |
| Churchill | Labour 54.0%vs Conservative 14.1% | May 2026 Labour 40.5%vs Green 28.2% | Labour share -13.4pp | 29.5% |
| Cowley | Labour 49.3%vs Others 19.9% | May 2026 Green 46.2%vs Others 25.3% | Labour→Green +35.5pp | 45.5% |
| Donnington | Labour 48.1%vs Green 21.7% | May 2026 Green 51.1%vs Others 24.3% | Labour→Green +31.8pp | 43.3% |
| Headington | Labour 41.8%vs Lib Dem 21.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.6%vs Labour 23.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +19.4pp | 48.8% |
| Headington Hill & Northway | Labour 51.8%vs Others 15.9% | May 2026 Labour 40.8%vs Others 27.3% | Labour share -11.0pp | 40.1% |
| Hinksey Park | Labour 57.2%vs Others 13.7% | May 2026 Labour 49.8%vs Green 32.7% | Labour share -7.4pp | 47.8% |
| Littlemore | Labour 49.5%vs Others 19.9% | May 2026 Labour 42.6%vs Others 23.5% | Labour share -6.9pp | 38.1% |
| Lye Valley | Labour 49.0%vs Others 20.9% | May 2026 Green 35.2%vs Labour 33.3% | Labour→Green +20.1pp | 35.6% |
| Marston | Labour 46.5%vs Green 18.3% | May 2026 Green 41.3%vs Others 31.9% | Labour→Green +26.9pp | 51.8% |
| Northfield Brook | Labour 52.7%vs Others 18.0% | May 2026 Labour 40.5%vs Reform 30.4% | Labour share -12.3pp | 27.4% |
| Quarry & Risinghurst | Labour 50.3%vs Lib Dem 17.5% | May 2026 Labour 37.4%vs Lib Dem 22.5% | Labour share -12.9pp | 50.1% |
| Rose Hill & Iffley | Labour 52.8%vs Others 17.9% | May 2026 Labour 46.9%vs Others 22.6% | Labour share -6.0pp | 44.9% |
| St Clement's | Labour 50.9%vs Others 16.1% | May 2026 Green 58.2%vs Labour 26.8% | Labour→Green +33.5pp | 39.0% |
| St Mary's | Labour 44.5%vs Green 24.1% | May 2026 Green 60.7%vs Labour 24.9% | Labour→Green +28.1pp | 31.4% |
| Temple Cowley | Labour 49.1%vs Others 25.5% | May 2026 Others 39.3%vs Green 30.0% | Labour→Others +34.9pp | 37.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Oxford East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Oxford East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Andrew Smith | 42.5% | 18.8% | 33.6% | 4,581 | 63.1% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Andrew Smith | 50.0% | 19.9% | 10.8% | 15,280 | 64.2%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Anneliese Dodds | 65.2% | 22.0% | 9.1% | 23,284 | 68.8%+4.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Anneliese Dodds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 56.4% | 21.4% | 14.0% | 15,959 | 63.0%-5.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Anneliese Dodds | 49.7% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 14,465 | 54.8%-8.2 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Oxford East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Oxford East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave32.5 / 31.6vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3544.0 / 45.9vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.4 / 50.2vs 61.9
- ↓Leave32.5 / 26.2vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.4 / 42.3vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3544.0 / 50.5vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.4 / 48.1vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate45.3 / 45.2vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent30.9 / 37.3vs 20.2
- ↓Leave32.5 / 36.3vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.4 / 47.3vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent30.9 / 32.4vs 20.2
- ↓Leave32.5 / 31.3vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.4 / 47.9vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3544.0 / 43.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.