Clacton
East of England · County constituency · Tendring borough
General election projection, not a by-election forecast.
About the Clacton constituency
Clacton is a county constituency in the East of England. The seat was held by Nigel Farage (Reform UK), with a by-election pending, date to be confirmed. At the 2024 general election, Reform UK won with 46.2% to 27.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 8,405 votes on a 58.7% turnout. PollCheck's general-election projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 60.2% and the Conservatives on 17.6%; this is not a forecast of the by-election, which has different turnout and tactical dynamics.
Who lives in Clacton? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Clacton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
By-election warning: the projection below is what would happen at a general election today. It does not forecast the Clacton by-election, which has different turnout, candidates, and tactical dynamics. See the full by-election tracker ›
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Clacton
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Clacton within Tendring
Clacton sits entirely within Tendring Council. Tendring was not itself in the 2026 election cycle (next district elections due in 2027), but the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Tendring | 100% |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clacton North | Ref | Ref 57% Other 18% Con 9% | 37.4% |
| Clacton South | Ref | Ref 55% Independent 19% Con 9% | 39.5% |
| Clacton West & St Osyth | Ref | Ref 61% Con 14% Other 11% | 38.6% |
| Frinton & Walton | Ref | Ref 47% Independent 19% Con 19% | 51.5% |
| Tendring Rural East | Ref | Ref 48% Con 39% Grn 6% | 49.6% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2025 | Frinton | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 57% Con 27% Lab 8% |
| 7 Feb 2025 | The Bentleys & Frating | Ref GAIN from Con | — |
| 20 Jan 2024 | Bluehouse | Ind GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bluehouse | Reform 42.4%vs Conservative 26.6% | 2023 Independent 39.4%vs Labour 24.4% | - | 19.9% |
| Burrsville | Reform 45.9%vs Conservative 27.9% | 2023 Conservative 36.7%vs Independent 23.7% | - | 24.0% |
| Cann Hall | Reform 41.2%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Independent 38.0%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 25.3% |
| Coppins | Reform 51.1%vs Conservative 22.2% | 2023 Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 30.7% | - | 19.1% |
| Eastcliff | Reform 48.1%vs Conservative 26.5% | 2023 Independent 57.8%vs Conservative 30.5% | - | 31.9% |
| Frinton | Reform 44.4%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Conservative 46.7%vs Others 30.0% | - | 42.1% |
| Homelands | Reform 49.7%vs Conservative 26.2% | 2023 Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 18.0% | - | 35.1% |
| Kirby Cross | Reform 45.7%vs Conservative 28.8% | 2023 Conservative 45.7%vs Others 33.7% | - | 28.7% |
| Kirby-le-Soken & Hamford | Reform 47.3%vs Conservative 27.2% | 2023 Conservative 49.2%vs Others 28.4% | - | 33.1% |
| Little Clacton | Reform 44.4%vs Conservative 30.5% | 2023 Conservative 62.6%vs Labour 24.4% | - | 25.4% |
| Pier | Reform 49.6%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2023 Conservative 41.4%vs Labour 33.6% | - | 22.2% |
| St Bartholomew's | Reform 50.4%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2023 Independent 59.1%vs Conservative 25.4% | - | 32.3% |
| St James | Reform 39.6%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Conservative 57.0%vs Labour 17.5% | - | 30.9% |
| St John's | Reform 49.1%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Independent 42.9%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | 16.3% |
| St Osyth | Reform 49.2%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Independent 48.5%vs Conservative 26.2% | - | 26.1% |
| St Paul's | Reform 41.8%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Others 23.2% | - | 31.2% |
| The Bentleys & Frating | Reform 43.1%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2023 Conservative 48.0%vs Lib Dem 18.4% | - | 32.0% |
| The Oakleys & Wix | Reform 46.9%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Independent 40.3%vs Conservative 34.4% | - | 31.3% |
| Thorpe, Beaumont & Great Holland | Reform 41.8%vs Conservative 36.1% | 2023 Conservative 75.8%vs Labour 12.4% | - | 36.2% |
| Walton | Reform 50.6%vs Conservative 21.0% | 2023 Others 33.4%vs Independent 22.6% | - | 30.1% |
| Weeley & Tendring | Reform 44.8%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 58.5%vs Independent 25.3% | - | 31.4% |
| West Clacton & Jaywick Sands | Reform 49.6%vs Conservative 26.1% | 2023 Independent 64.6%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 24.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Clacton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Clacton at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Douglas Carswell | 25.0% | 53.0% | 12.9% | 12,068 | 64.2% |
| 2015 | UKIP gain from Con | Douglas Carswell | 14.4% | 36.7% | 1.8% | 3,437 | 64.1%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con gain from UKIP | Giles Watling | 25.4% | 61.2% | 2.0% | 15,828 | 63.7%-0.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Giles Watling 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.6% | 71.9% | 6.2% | 25,717 | 60.1%-3.6 |
| 2024 | RUK gain from Con | Nigel Farage | 16.2% | 27.9% | 4.4% | 8,405 | 58.7%-1.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Clacton
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Clacton. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave73.0 / 68.9vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+37.4 / 35.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed42.9 / 47.1vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+37.4 / 35.9vs 22.7
- ↓Employed42.9 / 46.1vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 19.9vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave73.0 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+37.4 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+37.4 / 34.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 21.1vs 30.2
- ↓Employed42.9 / 48.9vs 57.3
- ↑Leave73.0 / 71.5vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.1 / 18.2vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.1 / 26.5vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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