Isle of Wight East
South East · County constituency · Isle of Wight borough
About the Isle of Wight East constituency
Isle of Wight East is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Joe Robertson (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 30.6% to 20.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 3,323 votes on a 61.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.6% and the Conservatives on 20.9%, a margin of 17.7 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Isle of Wight East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Isle of Wight East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Isle of Wight East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Isle of Wight East within Isle of Wight
Isle of Wight East sits entirely within Isle of Wight Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Isle of Wight | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bembridge | Conservative 36.4%vs Reform 19.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.9%vs Conservative 32.0% | Conservative→Lib Dem +16.1pp | 54.3% |
| Binstead & Fishbourne | Conservative 28.0%vs Labour 22.2% | May 2026 Others 57.9%vs Reform 20.4% | Conservative→Others +35.1pp | 52.8% |
| Brading & St Helens | Conservative 35.2%vs Reform 21.0% | May 2026 Others 63.3%vs Reform 30.8% | Conservative→Others +49.2pp | 45.5% |
| Haylands & Swanmore | Conservative 29.0%vs Green 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 40.8%vs Green 18.9% | Conservative→Reform +15.0pp | 38.7% |
| Lake North | Conservative 33.1%vs Reform 21.9% | May 2026 Reform 39.1%vs Conservative 36.0% | Conservative→Reform +7.2pp | 39.3% |
| Lake South | Conservative 36.0%vs Reform 19.5% | May 2026 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 34.6% | Conservative→Reform +11.7pp | 45.4% |
| Nettlestone & Seaview | Conservative 36.0%vs Reform 20.5% | May 2026 Others 44.2%vs Conservative 30.0% | Conservative→Others +25.1pp | 51.9% |
| Newchurch, Havenstreet & Ashey | Conservative 41.2%vs Reform 18.3% | May 2026 Reform 45.2%vs Conservative 28.1% | Conservative→Reform +20.0pp | 48.8% |
| Ryde Appley & Elmfield | Labour 28.3%vs Reform 22.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 60.4%vs Reform 32.4% | Labour→Lib Dem +39.0pp | 42.9% |
| Ryde Monktonmead | Green 24.1%vs Conservative 22.5% | May 2026 Others 36.0%vs Reform 31.5% | Green→Others +18.1pp | 38.8% |
| Ryde North West | Conservative 25.4%vs Reform 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 34.4%vs Green 29.1% | Conservative→Reform +11.3pp | 38.4% |
| Ryde South East | Conservative 24.9%vs Reform 24.3% | May 2026 Reform 41.3%vs Lib Dem 28.3% | Conservative→Reform +18.2pp | 31.4% |
| Ryde West | Conservative 24.7%vs Green 22.6% | May 2026 Reform 37.0%vs Green 28.6% | Conservative→Reform +17.5pp | 37.2% |
| Sandown North | Conservative 28.0%vs Green 21.8% | May 2026 Others 42.7%vs Reform 38.5% | Conservative→Others +31.2pp | 41.5% |
| Sandown South | Conservative 30.1%vs Green 22.5% | May 2026 Reform 36.5%vs Others 27.4% | Conservative→Reform +11.7pp | 36.3% |
| Shanklin Central | Conservative 33.0%vs Reform 20.5% | May 2026 Reform 29.6%vs Conservative 29.5% | Conservative→Reform +6.3pp | 42.8% |
| Shanklin South | Conservative 33.3%vs Green 20.3% | May 2026 Reform 37.2%vs Conservative 29.6% | Conservative→Reform +10.9pp | 47.9% |
| Ventnor & St Lawrence | Conservative 28.2%vs Reform 20.4% | May 2026 Conservative 45.6%vs Reform 22.2% | Conservative share +17.4pp | 46.6% |
| Wootton Bridge | Conservative 31.6%vs Labour 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 38.1%vs Conservative 22.9% | Conservative→Reform +13.4pp | 44.9% |
| Wroxall, Lowtherville & Bonchurch | Conservative 28.4%vs Reform 22.1% | May 2026 Others 45.8%vs Reform 24.0% | Conservative→Others +28.4pp | 45.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Isle of Wight East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Isle of Wight East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | No data | |||||||||
| 2015 | No data | |||||||||
| 2017 | No data | |||||||||
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Bob Seely Isleof Wight MP, pre-review boundary | 24.1% | 57.4% | 0.0% | 12,119 | 64.0% | |||
| 2024 | Con hold | Joe Robertson | 18.4% | 30.6% | 10.4% | 3,323 | 61.0%-3.0 | |||
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Isle of Wight East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Isle of Wight East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+35.9 / 34.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3519.9 / 21.1vs 30.2
- ↑Leave62.0 / 61.2vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+35.9 / 39.1vs 22.7
- ↓Employed46.1 / 45.7vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3519.9 / 18.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+35.9 / 35.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed46.1 / 47.1vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3519.9 / 20.9vs 30.2
- ↑Leave62.0 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+35.9 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3519.9 / 23.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+35.9 / 31.1vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate26.3 / 24.2vs 33.7
- ↓Employed46.1 / 49.7vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.