Constituency profile

North Norfolk

East of England · County constituency · North Norfolk borough

Steff Aquarone MP
Sitting MP

Steff Aquarone

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East of England
County constituency, North Norfolk council
Last 5 GE winners
LDLDLDCLD
Liberal Democrats 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
58.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +6.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +14.5pp
vs Conservative 26.3%
SouthernLeave-leaningWorking-class profile

About the North Norfolk constituency

North Norfolk is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Steff Aquarone (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 41.4% to 35.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,585 votes on a 65.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 40.8% and the Conservatives on 26.3%, a margin of 14.5 points.

Who lives in North Norfolk? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
58.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.8%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
69.3%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
29.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
55.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
39.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
18.5%
UK average ~28%

How did North Norfolk vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 2,585 votes (5.5pp) · turnout 65.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of North Norfolk

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

North Norfolk within North Norfolk

North Norfolk sits entirely within North Norfolk Council. North Norfolk was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Norfolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
North Norfolk
53 LSOAs
100%

Norfolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
CromerLDLD 59% Ref 27% Con 9%51.4%
ErpinghamLDLD 48% Ref 30% Con 14%53.4%
HoltLDLD 42% Ref 31% Con 19%50.5%
HovetonLDLD 40% Ref 36% Con 17%53.9%
North Walsham EastLDLD 50% Ref 35% Con 10%46.3%
North Walsham West & MundesleyLDLD 41% Ref 38% Con 12%46.3%
SheringhamLDLD 46% Ref 27% Con 17%51.9%
StalhamConCon 38% Ref 33% LD 20%51.1%
WellsConCon 32% LD 29% Ref 26%49.5%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
1 May 2025Holt
North Norfolk
LD GAIN from ConLD 42% Con 29% Ref 24%
13 Sep 2024North Walsham Market Cross
North Norfolk
LD GAIN from Ind
19 Jul 2024North Walsham East
North Norfolk
LD HOLD
14 Dec 2023Briston
North Norfolk
LD HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BactonLib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 36.7%2023 Conservative 47.2%vs Lib Dem 38.9%-32.2%
Beeston Regis & The RuntonsLib Dem 42.5%vs Conservative 40.3%2023 Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 35.5%-47.7%
BristonLib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 36.4%2023 Lib Dem 51.5%vs Conservative 40.6%-34.7%
CoastalConservative 39.8%vs Lib Dem 39.6%2023 Conservative 59.2%vs Lib Dem 32.5%-53.1%
Cromer TownLib Dem 45.7%vs Conservative 32.2%2023 Lib Dem 61.6%vs Conservative 26.4%-39.3%
ErpinghamLib Dem 43.6%vs Conservative 35.8%2023 Lib Dem 55.2%vs Conservative 24.7%-47.1%
GreshamLib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 36.8%2023 Lib Dem 55.2%vs Conservative 36.9%-46.1%
HappisburghConservative 39.0%vs Lib Dem 37.3%2023 Conservative 40.0%vs Lib Dem 33.8%-38.3%
HicklingLib Dem 43.0%vs Conservative 35.7%2023 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 36.4%-39.6%
HoltConservative 38.8%vs Lib Dem 38.0%2023 Conservative 41.4%vs Lib Dem 38.2%-57.5%
Hoveton & TunsteadConservative 44.7%vs Lib Dem 34.0%2023 Conservative 48.4%vs Lib Dem 27.8%-38.7%
MundesleyLib Dem 43.8%vs Conservative 32.9%2023 Lib Dem 68.5%vs Conservative 25.2%-45.9%
North Walsham EastLib Dem 42.9%vs Conservative 30.1%2023 Lib Dem 62.0%vs Conservative 32.0%-30.3%
North Walsham Market CrossLib Dem 40.8%vs Conservative 33.8%2023 Lib Dem 50.4%vs Conservative 37.5%-38.8%
North Walsham WestLib Dem 44.0%vs Conservative 28.2%2023 Lib Dem 65.1%vs Conservative 26.3%-31.6%
PoppylandLib Dem 38.1%vs Conservative 37.2%2023 Independent 40.2%vs Lib Dem 24.3%-39.7%
PrioryLib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 38.0%2023 Lib Dem 45.6%vs Conservative 43.1%-42.0%
RoughtonLib Dem 39.2%vs Conservative 37.1%2023 Lib Dem 44.0%vs Conservative 34.9%-33.8%
Sheringham NorthLib Dem 42.3%vs Conservative 34.1%2023 Lib Dem 50.1%vs Conservative 40.0%-42.1%
Sheringham SouthLib Dem 41.1%vs Conservative 38.8%2023 Lib Dem 51.1%vs Conservative 40.7%-46.4%
St Benet'sLib Dem 45.2%vs Conservative 34.6%2023 Lib Dem 59.2%vs Conservative 34.5%-45.0%
StalhamLib Dem 38.8%vs Conservative 37.3%2023 Conservative 52.4%vs Lib Dem 31.6%-36.4%
StodyLib Dem 46.4%vs Conservative 32.8%2023 Lib Dem 58.7%vs Conservative 34.0%-42.7%
Suffield ParkLib Dem 45.3%vs Conservative 33.5%2023 Lib Dem 61.1%vs Conservative 26.0%-39.1%
TrunchLib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 37.5%2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Lib Dem 40.0%-44.2%
Wells with HolkhamLib Dem 38.9%vs Conservative 33.7%2023 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 32.3%-39.5%
WorsteadLib Dem 50.5%vs Conservative 29.3%2023 Lib Dem 63.4%vs Conservative 21.4%-38.0%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for North Norfolk at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won North Norfolk at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdNorman Lamb5.8%32.1%55.5%5.4% UKIP1.0%0.2%11,62673.2%
2015LD holdNorman Lamb10.2%30.9%39.1%16.9% UKIP3.0%-4,04371.8%-1.4
2017LD holdNorman Lamb9.9%41.7%48.4%---3,51275.3%+3.5
2019notionalConservative winnerDuncan Baker 2019 MP, pre-review boundary7.7%58.5%30.4%-0.1%3.3%14,49272.9%-2.4
2024LD gain from ConSteffan Aquarone6.1%35.9%41.4%13.5% Ref3.0%-2,58565.9%-7.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like North Norfolk

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Norfolk. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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