Bexhill and Battle
South East · County constituency
About the Bexhill and Battle constituency
Bexhill and Battle is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Dr Kieran Mullan (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.9% to 28.3% for Labour, a majority of 2,657 votes on a 66.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.4% and the Conservatives on 25.8%, a margin of 3.6 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Bexhill and Battle? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bexhill and Battle vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bexhill and Battle
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bexhill and Battle within Rother and Wealden
Bexhill and Battle crosses council boundaries: Rother (89%), Wealden (11%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the East Sussex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Rother | 89% |
| Wealden | 11% |
East Sussex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battle & Crowhurst | LD | LD 46% Ref 29% Con 12% | 48.5% |
| Bexhill East | Ref | Ref 36% Other 21% Grn 14% | 41.6% |
| Bexhill North | Ref | Ref 31% Other 30% Con 14% | 41.0% |
| Bexhill South | Ref | Ref 31% Con 23% Grn 19% | 43.8% |
| Bexhill West | Ref | Ref 33% Independent 26% Con 21% | 52.5% |
| Brede Valley & Marsham | Ref | Ref 36% Con 27% LD 21% | 51.1% |
| Northern Rother | Con | Con 32% Ref 31% LD 21% | 50.6% |
| Pevensey & Stone Cross | Ref | Ref 42% LD 26% Con 18% | 45.5% |
| Rother North West | Ref | Ref 31% Con 31% LD 21% | 50.8% |
| Wealden East | Ref | Ref 38% Con 27% Grn 21% | 51.8% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2025 | Catsfield & Crowhurst | LD HOLD | LD 37% Ref 27% Con 22% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bexhill Central | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 27.7% | 2023 Labour 60.5%vs Conservative 21.9% | - | 27.8% |
| Bexhill Collington | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 25.5% | 2023 Others 66.0%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 48.0% |
| Bexhill Kewhurst | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Others 45.3%vs Conservative 34.6% | - | 52.4% |
| Bexhill Old Town & Worsham | Labour 31.2%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Green 30.0%vs Conservative 26.5% | - | 49.0% |
| Bexhill Pebsham & St Michaels | Labour 31.8%vs Conservative 31.0% | 2023 Independent 48.4%vs Conservative 27.0% | - | 42.1% |
| Bexhill Sackville | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 27.2% | 2023 Others 53.2%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 36.2% |
| Bexhill Sidley | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 30.4% | 2023 Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 32.6% | - | 27.2% |
| Bexhill St Marks | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 23.2% | 2023 Others 29.9%vs Conservative 25.3% | - | 64.0% |
| Bexhill St Stephens | Conservative 32.8%vs Labour 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 41.5%vs Green 26.3% | - | 43.2% |
| Brede & Udimore | Conservative 44.0%vs Labour 19.7% | 2023 Conservative 58.3%vs Lib Dem 33.7% | - | 39.2% |
| Burwash & the Weald | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 29.5% | 2023 Conservative 55.1%vs Lib Dem 24.6% | - | 44.6% |
| Catsfield & Crowhurst | Conservative 36.9%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 48.4%vs Conservative 33.0% | - | 43.1% |
| Herstmonceux & Pevensey Levels | Conservative 37.9%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.2%vs Conservative 36.5% | - | 34.5% |
| Hurst Green & Ticehurst | Conservative 32.5%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Lib Dem 52.2%vs Conservative 47.8% | - | 33.2% |
| North Battle, Netherfield & Whatlington | Conservative 32.5%vs Labour 31.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.9%vs Green 35.2% | - | 62.4% |
| Northern Rother | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 24.2% | 2023 Conservative 67.4%vs Independent 32.6% | - | 42.4% |
| Pevensey Bay | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Independent 64.9%vs Conservative 35.1% | - | 31.9% |
| Robertsbridge | Conservative 30.5%vs Labour 25.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 73.1%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 35.2% |
| Sedlescombe & Westfield | Conservative 32.0%vs Labour 25.8% | 2023 Conservative 61.8%vs Independent 38.2% | - | 36.6% |
| South Battle & Telham | Conservative 29.1%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.8%vs Conservative 35.2% | - | 34.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bexhill and Battle at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bexhill and Battle at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Gregory Barker | 12.0% | 51.6% | 28.0% | 12,880 | 67.4% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Huw Merriman | 14.1% | 54.8% | 7.6% | 20,075 | 70.1%+2.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Huw Merriman | 24.7% | 62.0% | 7.5% | 22,165 | 73.1%+3.0 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Huw Merriman 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 20.8% | 61.8% | 13.4% | 20,384 | 70.2%-2.9 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Kieran Mullan | 28.3% | 33.9% | 7.3% | 2,657 | 66.1%-4.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bexhill and Battle
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bexhill and Battle. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+37.3 / 38.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 18.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+37.3 / 37.0vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 19.8vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+37.3 / 39.9vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 76.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 18.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+37.3 / 34.5vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied73.3 / 69.2vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+37.3 / 39.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.2 / 18.5vs 30.2
- ↓Employed48.2 / 45.7vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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