Christchurch
South West · County constituency
About the Christchurch constituency
Christchurch is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sir Christopher Chope (Conservative), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.8% to 20.0% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 7,455 votes on a 66.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.6% and the Conservatives on 30.9%, a margin of 3.8 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Christchurch? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Christchurch vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Christchurch
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Christchurch within Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole and Dorset
Christchurch crosses council boundaries: Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (56%), Dorset (44%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole | 56% |
| Dorset | 44% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | St Leonards & St Ives | Con HOLD | Con 38% Ref 34% LD 26% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton & Grange | Conservative 30.0%vs Reform 20.6% | 2023 Others 40.6%vs Conservative 24.4% | - | 27.2% |
| Christchurch Town | Lib Dem 32.5%vs Conservative 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.1%vs Others 25.4% | - | 39.0% |
| Commons | Conservative 34.1%vs Reform 19.6% | 2023 Others 60.2%vs Conservative 11.6% | - | 43.9% |
| Ferndown North | Conservative 41.7%vs Labour 19.1% | 2024 Conservative 43.2%vs Independent 37.9% | - | 31.0% |
| Ferndown South | Conservative 35.2%vs Reform 20.8% | 2024 Independent 45.7%vs Conservative 38.1% | - | 23.2% |
| Highcliffe & Walkford | Conservative 35.7%vs Reform 19.2% | 2023 Others 72.2%vs Conservative 7.7% | - | 52.0% |
| Mudeford, Stanpit & West Highcliffe | Conservative 36.1%vs Reform 22.3% | 2023 Others 64.5%vs Conservative 15.7% | - | 46.0% |
| St Leonards & St Ives | Conservative 41.5%vs Lib Dem 21.3% | 2024 Conservative 63.9%vs Lib Dem 36.1% | - | 30.1% |
| West Moors & Three Legged Cross | Conservative 37.9%vs Lib Dem 18.7% | 2024 Conservative 52.7%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | - | 27.6% |
| West Parley | Conservative 42.5%vs Labour 17.9% | 2024 Conservative 66.0%vs Independent 17.8% | - | 28.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Christchurch at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Christchurch at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Christopher Chope | 9.8% | 56.4% | 25.3% | 15,410 | 71.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Christopher Chope | 9.5% | 58.1% | 6.6% | 18,224 | 71.7%-0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Christopher Chope | 19.9% | 69.6% | 7.9% | 25,171 | 72.0%+0.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Christopher Chope 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 12.9% | 65.6% | 17.4% | 25,034 | 72.5%+0.5 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Christopher Chope | 16.4% | 35.8% | 20.0% | 7,455 | 66.6%-5.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Christchurch
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Christchurch. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+39.9 / 37.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied76.9 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3518.9 / 20.2vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+39.9 / 38.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied76.9 / 74.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3518.9 / 18.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+39.9 / 37.0vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3518.9 / 19.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.9 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+39.9 / 39.1vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3518.9 / 18.5vs 30.2
- ↓Employed47.6 / 45.7vs 57.3
- ↑Age 65+39.9 / 33.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3518.9 / 20.4vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied76.9 / 72.1vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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