Louth and Horncastle
East Midlands · County constituency · East Lindsey borough
About the Louth and Horncastle constituency
Louth and Horncastle is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Victoria Atkins (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 37.5% to 25.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 5,506 votes on a 60.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 37.1% and the Conservatives on 30.9%, a margin of 6.3 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Louth and Horncastle? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Louth and Horncastle vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Louth and Horncastle
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Louth and Horncastle within East Lindsey
Louth and Horncastle sits entirely within East Lindsey Council. East Lindsey was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Lindsey | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alford | Conservative 38.5%vs Reform 27.4% | 2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 25.3% | - | 27.4% |
| Binbrook | Conservative 42.0%vs Reform 25.1% | 2023 Conservative 67.2%vs Labour 32.9% | - | 31.1% |
| Coningsby & Mareham | Conservative 44.1%vs Labour 23.8% | 2015 Reform 42.4%vs Conservative 38.6% | - | 90.0% |
| Grimoldby | Conservative 32.6%vs Reform 28.4% | 2023 Independent 73.9%vs Labour 26.1% | - | 25.2% |
| Hagworthingham | Conservative 41.8%vs Reform 24.4% | 2023 Conservative 48.7%vs Independent 27.5% | - | 33.7% |
| Halton Holegate | Conservative 37.2%vs Reform 28.9% | 2019 Independent 67.2%vs Conservative 24.7% | - | 33.5% |
| Holton-le-Clay & North Thoresby | Conservative 36.6%vs Reform 24.5% | 2023 Independent 41.2%vs Conservative 31.8% | - | 40.9% |
| Horncastle | Conservative 36.2%vs Reform 24.3% | 2019 Conservative 41.3%vs Lib Dem 24.4% | - | 48.8% |
| Legbourne | Conservative 44.0%vs Reform 23.6% | 2023 Conservative 65.9%vs Labour 34.1% | - | 33.6% |
| Mablethorpe | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 29.0% | 2023 Labour 68.9%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 24.4% |
| Marshchapel & Somercotes | Conservative 42.8%vs Reform 25.2% | 2023 Conservative 67.2%vs Labour 19.7% | - | 31.5% |
| North Holme | Conservative 29.4%vs Labour 28.5% | 2023 Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 29.3% | - | 23.1% |
| Priory & St James' | Labour 29.6%vs Reform 27.7% | 2023 Independent 83.8%vs Conservative 16.2% | - | 21.1% |
| Roughton | Conservative 45.1%vs Reform 25.2% | 2019 Conservative 79.8%vs Labour 20.2% | - | 29.7% |
| Spilsby | Conservative 32.4%vs Reform 31.0% | 2023 Independent 52.3%vs Conservative 47.7% | - | 20.9% |
| St Margaret's | Conservative 33.8%vs Reform 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 33.7% | - | 29.4% |
| St Mary's | Reform 29.5%vs Conservative 29.0% | 2023 Independent 89.9%vs Conservative 10.1% | - | 36.8% |
| St Michael's | Conservative 29.1%vs Reform 28.0% | 2023 Independent 70.2%vs Labour 29.8% | - | 29.5% |
| Sutton on Sea | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 25.7% | 2023 Green 41.9%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 54.8% |
| Tetford & Donington | Conservative 42.7%vs Reform 25.8% | 2023 Independent 49.5%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 40.0% |
| Tetney | Conservative 35.6%vs Reform 29.0% | 2023 Independent 75.0%vs Labour 25.1% | - | 25.6% |
| Trinity | Labour 32.7%vs Reform 28.7% | 2023 Labour 65.5%vs Independent 34.5% | - | 21.0% |
| Withern & Theddlethorpe | Conservative 42.8%vs Reform 27.2% | 2023 Independent 56.5%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 39.0% |
| Woodhall Spa | Conservative 44.5%vs Reform 25.3% | 2023 Conservative 59.0%vs Independent 31.2% | - | 41.1% |
| Wragby | Conservative 43.6%vs Reform 21.4% | 2023 Independent 47.8%vs Conservative 42.4% | - | 30.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Louth and Horncastle at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Louth and Horncastle at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Peter Tapsell | 17.3% | 49.6% | 22.2% | 13,871 | 65.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Victoria Atkins | 18.0% | 51.2% | 4.5% | 14,977 | 67.2%+2.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Victoria Atkins | 26.7% | 63.9% | 3.8% | 19,641 | 66.8%-0.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Victoria Atkins 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 17.7% | 72.5% | 7.8% | 27,883 | 67.1%+0.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Victoria Atkins | 22.5% | 37.5% | 5.1% | 5,506 | 60.5%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Louth and Horncastle
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Louth and Horncastle. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+35.4 / 35.9vs 22.7
- ↓Employed47.1 / 46.1vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3520.9 / 19.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+35.4 / 34.8vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3520.9 / 21.1vs 30.2
- ↓Employed47.1 / 48.9vs 57.3
- ↑Leave68.9 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.9 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+35.4 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate23.9 / 20.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave68.9 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+35.4 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+35.4 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave68.9 / 62.0vs 53.2
- ↓Under 3520.9 / 23.5vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.