Birmingham Ladywood
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough
About the Birmingham Ladywood constituency
Birmingham Ladywood is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Shabana Mahmood (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.5% to 33.2% for other parties, a majority of 3,421 votes on a 43.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 31.3% and Labour on 29.6%, a margin of 1.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Birmingham Ladywood? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Birmingham Ladywood vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Birmingham Ladywood
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Birmingham Ladywood within Birmingham
Birmingham Ladywood sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alum Rock | Labour 40.6%vs Others 36.7% | May 2026 Others 49.8%vs Labour 35.2% | Labour→Others +27.6pp | - |
| Balsall Heath West | Labour 43.7%vs Others 32.7% | May 2026 Others 35.3%vs Green 34.5% | Labour→Others +30.9pp | - |
| Bordesley & Highgate | Labour 41.6%vs Others 35.0% | May 2026 Others 32.3%vs Green 25.0% | Labour→Others +26.2pp | - |
| Bordesley Green | Labour 40.3%vs Others 37.2% | May 2026 Others 42.5%vs Labour 25.0% | Labour→Others +28.9pp | - |
| Ladywood | Labour 44.0%vs Others 30.3% | May 2026 Green 37.2%vs Labour 26.0% | Labour→Green +23.1pp | - |
| Nechells | Labour 42.0%vs Others 33.4% | May 2026 Others 45.4%vs Labour 24.9% | Labour→Others +31.3pp | - |
| Newtown | Labour 42.2%vs Others 32.8% | May 2026 Labour 41.8%vs Lib Dem 17.4% | Labour share -0.5pp | - |
| Soho & Jewellery Quarter | Labour 43.7%vs Others 31.6% | May 2026 Labour 36.0%vs Green 31.1% | Labour share -7.7pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Ladywood at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Birmingham Ladywood at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Shabana Mahmood | 55.7% | 11.9% | 27.5% | 10,105 | 48.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Shabana Mahmood | 73.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | 21,868 | 52.7%+4.0 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Shabana Mahmood | 82.7% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 28,714 | 59.0%+6.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Shabana Mahmood 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 83.0% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 32,583 | 58.2%-0.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Shabana Mahmood | 42.5% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3,421 | 43.7%-14.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Birmingham Ladywood
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Ladywood. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied26.7 / 25.5vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3553.5 / 59.3vs 30.2
- ↑Social rent35.9 / 34.5vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied26.7 / 26.8vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent35.9 / 34.2vs 16.8
- ↑Private rent36.2 / 36.0vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied26.7 / 38.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent36.2 / 38.9vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+8.1 / 10.1vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3553.5 / 47.2vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied26.7 / 42.8vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent36.2 / 34.7vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied26.7 / 27.7vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3553.5 / 49.0vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent36.2 / 37.6vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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