Constituency profile

Manchester Rusholme

North West · Borough constituency · Manchester borough

Afzal Khan MP
Sitting MP

Afzal Khan

Labour

First elected June 2017

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency, Manchester council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
37.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -14.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +15.3pp
vs Green 30.4%
NorthernRemain-leaningDiverse

About the Manchester Rusholme constituency

Manchester Rusholme is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Afzal Khan (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 51.9% to 23.5% for the Greens, a majority of 8,235 votes on a 40.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 45.7% and the Greens on 30.4%, a margin of 15.3 points.

Who lives in Manchester Rusholme? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
37.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
37.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
16.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
25.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
73.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
26.0
UK median ~40
Age 65+
7.0%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
59.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Manchester Rusholme vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 8,235 votes (28.4pp) · turnout 40.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Manchester Rusholme

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Manchester Rusholme within Manchester

Manchester Rusholme sits entirely within Manchester Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Manchester
53 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
ArdwickLabour 52.8%vs Green 19.6%May 2026 Green 45.8%vs Labour 32.1%
Labour→Green
+23.4pp
26.9%
FallowfieldLabour 52.1%vs Green 22.5%May 2026 Green 52.0%vs Labour 27.8%
Labour→Green
+26.9pp
25.8%
HulmeLabour 49.2%vs Green 24.4%May 2026 Green 54.8%vs Labour 33.5%
Labour→Green
+23.1pp
29.0%
Moss SideLabour 53.1%vs Green 21.6%May 2026 Green 56.5%vs Labour 32.3%
Labour→Green
+27.9pp
27.8%
RusholmeLabour 54.3%vs Green 23.3%May 2026 Green 48.5%vs Labour 26.9%
Labour→Green
+26.3pp
32.5%
Whalley RangeLabour 49.8%vs Green 29.2%May 2026 Green 53.9%vs Labour 30.4%
Labour→Green
+22.1pp
38.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Manchester Rusholme at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Manchester Rusholme at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdTony Lloyd Manchester Central MP52.7%11.8%26.6%1.5% UKIP2.3%5.1%10,43944.3%
2015predecessorLab holdLucy Powell Manchester Central MP61.3%13.5%4.1%11.1% UKIP8.5%1.5%21,63952.7%+8.4
2017predecessorLab holdLucy Powell Manchester Central MP77.4%14.2%3.4%3.0% UKIP1.7%0.4%31,44555.1%+2.4
2019notionalLabour winnerLucy Powell Manchester Central MP, pre-review boundary78.6%9.1%4.0%-4.3%4.0%27,90156.8%
2024Lab holdAfzal Khan51.9%5.8%0%4.5% Ref23.5%14.4%8,23540.0%-16.8

Manchester Rusholme was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Manchester Central (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Manchester Rusholme

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Manchester Rusholme. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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