Greater Manchester Mayoral By-Election 2026

Anyone registered to vote in the ten Greater Manchester boroughs can vote in the by-election. The deadline to register to vote is 11:59pm on Tuesday 14 July 2026. Applications for a postal vote close at 5pm on Wednesday 15 July, and for a proxy vote at 5pm on Wednesday 22 July.

Polling stations are open 7am to 10pm on Thursday 30 July. To vote in person you must bring an accepted form of photo ID, such as a passport, driving licence or older person's bus pass.

The ballot paper has two columns: mark one first choice and, if you want, one second choice for a different candidate. A second choice can only help after your first choice is eliminated - it never counts against them - so there is no tactical cost to using it.

Voters mark a first choice and, if they want, a second choice. A candidate who wins more than half of first preferences is elected straight away. If no one does, the top two candidates stay in and the rest are knocked out.

Each knocked-out ballot is then checked for a second choice. If that second choice is one of the two remaining candidates, it is added to their total. If it names someone already eliminated, or was left blank, the ballot stops counting. Whoever has more votes at the end wins.

This is a baseline projection, not a poll or a prediction. It is a starting point for testing scenarios, built from historic voting and demographic modelling rather than from any survey of how people intend to vote.

The baseline starts from the 2026 local elections across all 215 Greater Manchester wards (the most recent Burnham-free results) and reprojects them into the shape of a mayoral race: one candidate per party. Partial slates are filled in (the Liberal Democrats, for example, did not stand in many wards), the hyperlocal “[Town] First” independent vote is collapsed, and Restore is projected as a real candidate using GE2024 votes and ward demographics. The result is a single-candidate first-preference baseline, not raw local-election shares.

Moving a slider changes the Greater Manchester share for a party and applies a uniform swing: the same change is added to every ward, which is then recoloured by its leading party. Borough and ward differences come from their reprojected starting points, not from any further local sensitivity.

There is no second-preference data for Greater Manchester. Burnham won outright in 2021, so the second count was never reached, and Reform UK has never reached a Supplementary Vote run-off anywhere. The second-choice settings are a starting estimate you can change, not a measured result, so treat the second count as a range rather than a forecast.

Bury's Moorside ward was countermanded in May 2026 and held separately; its declared result, a Labour hold, is included here. Ward boundaries follow the current 2026 wards; Bolton, Stockport and Wigan changed boundaries after 2022 and use their current map.

When is the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election?

The by-election is on 30 July 2026. It was triggered when Andy Burnham was elected MP for Makerfield on 18 June 2026, which automatically vacated the mayoralty.

Why is there a by-election?

A combined-authority mayor who becomes an MP is automatically disqualified from the role. When Burnham won Makerfield the mayoralty fell vacant, and a by-election must be held within 35 working days.

Who are the candidates?

The seven candidates on the ballot are Bev Craig (Labour), Sian Astley (Reform UK), Geraldine Coggins (Green), Phil Eckersley (Conservative), Richard Kilpatrick (Liberal Democrats), Marlon Scott West (Restore Britain) and Marcus Jonathan Farmer (Independent). Nominations closed on 3 July 2026, so the field is final.

What voting system is used?

The Supplementary Vote. Voters mark a first and an optional second choice. If no candidate passes 50% of first preferences, the top two go to a second count where the second choices of eliminated candidates are added. It is the first Greater Manchester mayoral contest under the Supplementary Vote since 2021.

Who is the favourite to be the next Mayor of Greater Manchester?

The contest is open. Greater Manchester is a long-standing Labour area, but Reform UK polled strongly across the ten boroughs in the May 2026 local elections. Under the Supplementary Vote a candidate can lead first preferences and still lose, because the second choices of eliminated candidates are added on a second count and tend to consolidate behind the leading non-Reform candidate. PollCheck publishes a baseline projection and an interactive model to explore the scenarios; it is not a poll or a prediction.

How do I vote in the by-election?

Register to vote by 11:59pm on 14 July 2026 at gov.uk. Postal vote applications close at 5pm on 15 July and proxy applications at 5pm on 22 July. Polling stations are open 7am to 10pm on 30 July and photo ID is required. On the ballot, mark a first choice and an optional second choice.

Can Reform UK win in Greater Manchester?

It is possible but harder than a first-preference lead implies. The Supplementary Vote rewards the candidate the majority can accept rather than the largest single bloc, so the second preferences of Green, Liberal Democrat and other voters tend to flow to the leading non-Reform finalist. Reform generally needs either a high first-preference share or a divided opposition.

What does the Mayor of Greater Manchester do?

The mayor leads the Greater Manchester Combined Authority across the ten boroughs, running the Bee Network of buses, trams and bikes and holding devolved powers over housing, planning, policing, the fire service, skills and a multi-year investment settlement.

When will the result be declared?

Votes are counted after polls close at 10pm on 30 July 2026, with the result expected the following day. If no candidate wins more than half of first preferences, a second count redistributes the second choices of all but the top two candidates before a winner is declared.

Who won the last Greater Manchester mayoral election?

Andy Burnham (Labour) won in 2024 with 63.4% of the vote, under first-past-the-post. The 2026 by-election returns to the Supplementary Vote and Burnham is not standing.

• Makerfield by-election – the contest Andy Burnham won to trigger this race.
• Gorton and Denton by-election – the Greens' first Westminster gain in Greater Manchester.
• All UK by-elections – results, candidates and trackers.

2026 local election results by borough – the data behind the baseline:

Bolton · Bury · Manchester · Oldham · Rochdale · Salford · Stockport · Tameside · Trafford · Wigan