Result - By-Election
Makerfield By-Election Result 2026
Greater Manchester (North West England) · Polling day Thursday 18 June 2026
At a glance
Andy Burnham (Labour) won the Makerfield by-election on Thursday 18 June 2026 with 54.8% of the vote (24,937). Robert Kenyon (Reform UK) finished second on 34.5% (15,696). The Labour majority was 9,241 votes (20.3 percentage points), up from a 13.4-point margin at the 2024 general election.
The by-election was triggered on 14 May 2026 when sitting Labour MP Josh Simons resigned the seat. Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor since 2017, returns to Westminster after eight years - he previously sat as MP for the neighbouring Leigh constituency from 2001 to 2017. Turnout was 58.75% on an electorate of 76,641.
Result
Majority 9,241 (20.3pp)
Change vs 2024 General Election
Labour's vote share rose 9.6 percentage points. Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green vote shares fell substantially. Restore Britain did not exist in 2024.
| Party | 2024 GE | Result | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 45.2% | 54.8% | +9.6 |
| Reform UK | 31.8% | 34.5% | +2.7 |
| Restore Britain | - | 6.8% | NEW |
| Conservative | 10.9% | 2.2% | -8.7 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6.8% | 0.4% | -6.4 |
| Green | 4.4% | 0.7% | -3.7 |
Candidates
Fourteen candidates were validly nominated. Nominations closed on Tuesday 26 May 2026.
Andy Burnham
Labour and Co-operative
Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017. Former Labour MP for Leigh (2001-2017). Selected by Labour's NEC on 15 May 2026.
Robert Kenyon
Reform UK
Local plumber, recently elected to Wigan Council. Reform came second in Makerfield at GE2024 with 31.8%.
Michael William Winstanley
Conservative
Wigan councillor (2000-2022); Mayor of Wigan (2010-2011). Has stood for Parliament three times (Makerfield 1997, Wigan 2010, Leigh and Atherton 2024).
Count Binface
Count Binface Party
Satirical candidate; address in Sussex Weald constituency.
Howling Laud Hope
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Party leader and co-founder.
John Alfred Dyer
Independent
Independent (address in Liverpool Wavertree constituency).
Robert Neil Pownall
Independent
Independent (address in Norwich North constituency).
Pre-election polls (for the record)
Five constituency polls were published before the by-election. The polls collectively underestimated Labour's vote share by an average of around 9 percentage points and overestimated Reform UK's vote share by around 4 to 5 points. The actual result (Lab 54.8 / Reform UK 34.5) sits outside the range of all five polls.
Constituency polls
N=525 · MoE ±4.3%
N=543 · MoE ±4.2%
N=515 · MoE ±4.3%
N=518 · MoE ±4.8%
N=504 · MoE ±5.4%
Try the scenario explorer to see how the ward map changes under different turnout, candidate and tactical-voting assumptions - or load any of the five published polls (Convergent, Opinium, More in Common/UCL, Survation x2) as a preset.
Pre-poll forecasts (for reference)
These are forecasts, not polls. Published before the Survation fieldwork above; kept on the page as a historical record of how the contest was modelled prior to constituency polling. Compare to the published numbers in the section above.
Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green vote shares each hold in the 3-6% range across both scenarios. Central estimates from 10,000 simulations per scenario.
About the Makerfield constituency
Makerfield is a UK Parliament constituency in Greater Manchester, North West England. Named after the historic Makerfield area south-west of Wigan, the seat covers wards in the Wigan metropolitan borough including Ashton-in-Makerfield, Bryn, Hindley, Hindley Green, Abram, Orrell, Winstanley and Worsley Mesnes. It has been continuously Labour-held since the seat was created in 1983 from parts of the Ince, Wigan and Leigh constituencies.
Josh Simons was first elected as the Labour MP for Makerfield at the 2024 general election, succeeding Yvonne Fovargue. Simons announced his resignation on 14 May 2026 to allow Andy Burnham, who held the neighbouring Leigh constituency from 2001 to 2017 before becoming Greater Manchester Mayor, to attempt a return to Westminster.
Why this by-election
Key dates
PollCheck nowcast
Lead
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Win probability
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As of
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2024 General Election result
Winner
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Majority
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Turnout
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Electorate
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The Constituency
Demographics and background on Makerfield
2024 General Election by Ward
Estimated vote share in each ward (Britain Elects)
Scenario Explorer
Not a poll or projection. An interactive what-if tool, not a forecast. The numbers shown reflect whatever combination of inputs you choose - they are scenarios.
Pick a baseline (any of five constituency polls, the 2024 General Election, or the 7 May 2026 local elections) and layer on a Burnham personal-vote bonus, turnout shifts or tactical voting to see how the result could move. The Survation 1 June poll uses its own ward-group crossbreaks; the others apply each ward's GE2024 relative strength to the poll's constituency total. Open full page →
Interactive Ward Map
2024 General Election results and Census 2021 demographics by ward. Use the buttons at the top to colour the map by vote share or demographics. Toggle between Ward and LSOA views for more granular data. Click any area for a detailed breakdown.
The areas shown are the eight Wigan wards that lie wholly inside the Makerfield parliamentary constituency. They cover ~97% of the electorate; three further wards (Leigh West, Ince, Golborne & Lowton West) have small slivers inside the seat - excluded here for legibility but included in the Scenario Explorer above.
Sources: 2024 General Election ward estimates - Britain Elects. Census 2021 - ONS. Makerfield Westminster boundary - ONS, July 2024.
Ward Demographics (Census 2021)
Local elections signal - the wards in Makerfield, 7 May 2026
Voters in the eight wards that make up Makerfield went to the polls less than two weeks before this by-election was triggered. Reform UK won every single one.
| Ward | Reform | Lab | Con | Green | LD | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abram | 56.1% | 24.2% | 4.5% | 11.3% | 4.0% | - |
| Ashton-in-Makerfield South | 46.4% | 32.5% | 8.4% | 12.7% | - | - |
| Bryn with Ashton-in-Makerfield North | 52.2% | 24.1% | 6.8% | 11.8% | 5.2% | - |
| Hindley | 52.3% | 21.4% | 4.0% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 8.1% |
| Hindley Green | 52.3% | 32.7% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% | - |
| Orrell | 39.9% | 24.2% | 19.4% | 11.6% | 4.9% | - |
| Winstanley | 49.7% | 31.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 4.6% | - |
| Worsley Mesnes | 50.9% | 25.2% | 3.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 8.1% |
| Aggregate (vote-weighted, 28,569 votes) | 49.8% | 26.9% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
What this means for the by-election
- Reform leads Labour by 22.9 percentage points across the constituency aggregate. At GE2024 the same area was a Labour-Reform marginal with Labour 13.4pp ahead. The local swing on the same boundaries runs approximately 18 points from Labour to Reform.
- Labour did not win a single ward. Its strongest residual support sits in Hindley Green (32.7%), Ashton-in-Makerfield South (32.5%) and Winstanley (31.0%) - traditional union-and-industrial Labour territory. Its floor was in Hindley at 21.4%.
- The Conservatives barely register across most of the seat (3-9% in seven wards), with one exception: Orrell (19.4%) - the only ward where the Tory vote was meaningful.
- Orrell is the one ward where a unified non-Reform vote (Lab 24.2 + Con 19.4 + Grn 11.6 + LD 4.9 = ~60%) plausibly beats Reform on 39.9%, if combined - though local elections are not parliamentary contests.
- Greens averaged 10.4% across the seat - a tactical-vote pool that could matter at a by-election if Labour can corral it.
- Independent and minor-party support sits at 8.1% in two wards (Hindley, and Worsley Mesnes where Independent Danny Cooke took 272 votes). Named-independent support typically does not transfer to a parliamentary contest.
Caveats. Local elections have lower turnout than parliamentary contests and Reform fielded a full slate; both factors typically widen the local lead vs a by-election. Andy Burnham's personal vote, mayoral majorities of 60%+ across Greater Manchester (63.4% at the 2024 mayoral election), is the strongest counter-factor not captured in these ward numbers. The baseline is nonetheless stark: on the most recent test of opinion in the same geography, Reform UK would start the by-election as clear favourites.
Andy Burnham and a return to Westminster
Andy Burnham has served as Mayor of Greater Manchester since 8 May 2017, and was re-elected for a third term with 63.4% of the vote in 2024. Before becoming Mayor he was Labour MP for Leigh from 2001 to 2017, holding Cabinet positions including Secretary of State for Health under Gordon Brown. In recent months Burnham has been widely speculated by the media as a potential candidate in a future Labour leadership election to succeed Keir Starmer. A Survation poll of Labour members for LabourList, conducted 13-14 May 2026, found 61% would back Burnham in a hypothetical head-to-head against Starmer, with Starmer on 28% and the remainder undecided. To stand for the Labour leadership a candidate must hold a parliamentary seat. On 24 January 2026 Burnham applied to stand as Labour's candidate in the Gorton and Denton by-election. His candidacy was blocked the following day by an 8 to 1 vote of Labour's National Executive Committee, including Keir Starmer. The Greens went on to gain the seat. Simons, announcing his resignation on 14 May 2026, cited standing aside to allow Burnham to contest Makerfield. Burnham was subsequently selected as Labour's candidate, with polling day on Thursday 18 June 2026.
Background - the constituency
How to vote in the Makerfield by-election
Polls open at 07:00 and close at 22:00 on polling day. To vote in person you must be registered and bring an accepted form of photo ID. Register to vote (gov.uk) · Accepted voter ID (Electoral Commission) · Find your polling station