PollCheck

UK By-Elections Tracker

Results, polling and analysis for UK parliamentary and mayoral by-elections.

Last updated 9 October 2026 - Holborn and St Pancras by-election result declared

Council by-elections

Updated weekly · Projections and results

Council By-Elections Projector

Win probabilities, candidates, ward maps and results for every council by-election, each week.
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Mayoral by-elections

30 Jul 2026 · Result

Greater Manchester Mayor

Labour hold
Lab 47.1%   Ref 21.0%   Grn 12.2%
First preferences · Craig (Lab) 66.3% to 33.7% on the second count · turnout 25.1%
Full result ->

By-elections this Parliament

8 Oct 2026 · Result

Holborn and St Pancras

Labour hold
Lab 45.2%   Grn 32.8%   Con 7.1%
Abdi-Wali (Lab) · majority 12.4pp · turnout 38.76%
Full result ->

13 Aug 2026 · Result

Clacton

Reform hold
Ref 63.3%   Binface 26.9%   Oth 9.7%
Farage (Ref) · majority 36.4pp · turnout 44.4%
Full result ->

18 Jun 2026 · Result

Makerfield

Labour hold
Lab 54.8%   Ref 34.5%   Oth 10.7%
Burnham (Lab) · majority 20.3pp · turnout 58.7%
Full result ->

18 Jun 2026 · Result

Aberdeen South

Conservative gain
Con 49.5%   SNP 28.6%   Ref 8.6%
Lumsden (Con) · majority 20.9pp · turnout 38.0%
Full result ->

18 Jun 2026 · Result

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry

SNP hold
SNP 41.2%   Con 19.0%   Ref 18.3%
Bird (SNP) · majority 22.2pp · turnout 31.36%
Full result ->

26 Feb 2026 · Result

Gorton and Denton

Green gain
Grn 40.7%   Ref 28.7%   Lab 25.4%
Spencer (Grn) · turnout 47.5%
Full analysis ->

1 May 2025 · Result

Runcorn and Helsby

Reform gain
Ref 38.7%   Lab 38.7%   Con 7.2%
Pochin (Ref) · majority 6 votes · turnout 46.2%
Full result ->

More for Clacton: Scenario explorer|Ward map|Constituency profile

More for Gorton and Denton: Ward map explorer|Turnout map

Results table

Date Constituency Held by Winner Turnout
8 Oct 2026 Holborn and St Pancras Labour Labour (Sagal Abdi-Wali) 38.76%
13 Aug 2026 Clacton Reform UK Reform UK (Nigel Farage) 44.4%
18 Jun 2026 Makerfield Labour Labour (Andy Burnham) 58.7%
18 Jun 2026 Aberdeen South SNP Conservative (Douglas Lumsden) 38.0%
18 Jun 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP SNP (Lara Bird) 31.36%
26 Feb 2026 Gorton and Denton Labour Green (Hannah Spencer) 47.5%
1 May 2025 Runcorn and Helsby Labour Reform UK (Sarah Pochin) 46.2%

Frequently asked

How are UK by-elections triggered?

A by-election is held to fill a vacant seat in the House of Commons. Vacancies arise when an MP dies, resigns, is disqualified, or is expelled. The Speaker issues the writ for the by-election, usually within three months of the vacancy.

How does PollCheck forecast by-elections?

PollCheck combines national and regional polling, the constituency's 2024 General Election result, ward-level demographics, and constituency-specific polling where available, alongside typical mid-term swing patterns.

GB polling 2026 local elections Council control map Path to No10