Edinburgh South
Scotland · Burgh constituency · Edinburgh borough
About the Edinburgh South constituency
Edinburgh South is a burgh constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of Edinburgh. The sitting MP is Ian Murray (Labour), first elected in May 2010.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Edinburgh South with 53.3% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 16.5%, a majority of 17,251 votes. Turnout was 66.1%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Labour on 34.8% and the SNP on 22.0% in Edinburgh South, a margin of 12.8 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Edinburgh South is a strongly Remain-voting area (an estimated 22.1% voted Leave in 2016). About 61.5% of residents hold a degree, 67.2% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 38 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by Labour each time.
Who lives in Edinburgh South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Edinburgh South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Edinburgh South
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Edinburgh South voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Edinburgh South crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Edinburgh Southern (89%), Edinburgh Central (6%), Midlothian North (4%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Edinburgh South | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh Southern | 89% | Labour 42.9% | SNP 30.3% | Daniel Johnson |
| Edinburgh Central | 6% | Green 36.0% | Labour 23.0% | Lorna Slater |
| Midlothian North | 4% | SNP 38.9% | Labour 30.3% | Colin Beattie |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Edinburgh South within Edinburgh
The Westminster constituency of Edinburgh South sits entirely within Edinburgh Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Edinburgh was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Edinburgh | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Edinburgh South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Edinburgh South at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Ian Murray | 34.7% | 21.6% | 34.0% | 316 | 73.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Ian Murray | 39.1% | 17.5% | 3.7% | 2,637 | 74.9%+1.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Ian Murray | 54.9% | 19.7% | 2.9% | 15,514 | 74.1%-0.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Ian Murray 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 46.2% | 16.8% | 8.2% | 10,795 | 74.7%+0.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Ian Murray | 53.3% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 17,251 | 66.1%-8.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Edinburgh South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Edinburgh South. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave22.1 / 27.9vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate61.5 / 56.6vs 33.7
- ↓No quals8.5 / 10.1vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate61.5 / 58.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave22.1 / 33.3vs 53.2
- ↓No quals8.5 / 9.5vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate61.5 / 56.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave22.1 / 32.1vs 53.2
- ↓No quals8.5 / 9.8vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate61.5 / 64.1vs 33.7
- ↓Leave22.1 / 28.7vs 53.2
- ↓No quals8.5 / 8.2vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate61.5 / 58.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave22.1 / 28.8vs 53.2
- ↓No quals8.5 / 9.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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