Constituency profile

Richmond Park

London · Borough constituency

Sarah Olney MP
Sitting MP

Sarah Olney

Liberal Democrat

First elected December 2019

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCLDLD
Conservative 3/5, Liberal Democrats 2/5
EU referendum 2016
28.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -23.2pp below mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +24.3pp
vs Conservative 24.1%
LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

About the Richmond Park constituency

Richmond Park is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Sarah Olney (Liberal Democrat), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 54.6% to 21.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 17,155 votes on a 69.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 48.4% and the Conservatives on 24.1%, a margin of 24.3 points.

Who lives in Richmond Park? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
28.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
64.1%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
8.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
59.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
40.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
41.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
19.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Richmond Park vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD hold · majority 17,155 votes (32.8pp) · turnout 69.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Richmond Park

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Richmond Park within Richmond upon Thames and Kingston upon Thames

Richmond Park crosses council boundaries: Richmond upon Thames (69%), Kingston upon Thames (31%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Richmond upon Thames
47 LSOAs
69%View projection ›
Kingston upon Thames
21 LSOAs
31%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BarnesLib Dem 53.7%vs Conservative 25.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Conservative 32.7%
Lib Dem share
-9.6pp
51.6%
Canbury GardensLib Dem 54.9%vs Conservative 22.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 50.6%vs Green 14.6%
Lib Dem share
-4.2pp
-
Coombe HillLib Dem 47.1%vs Conservative 28.9%May 2026 Conservative 36.0%vs Others 25.2%
Lib Dem→Conservative
+18.3pp
-
East SheenLib Dem 58.7%vs Conservative 21.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 26.4%
Lib Dem share
-6.6pp
52.0%
Ham, Petersham & Richmond RiversideLib Dem 58.1%vs Conservative 18.5%May 2026 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Green 28.0%
Lib Dem share
-10.6pp
52.2%
KewLib Dem 58.3%vs Conservative 21.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 51.4%vs Conservative 25.2%
Lib Dem share
-6.9pp
51.3%
Kingston GateLib Dem 55.3%vs Conservative 19.9%May 2026 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Green 18.8%
Lib Dem share
-7.8pp
-
Mortlake & Barnes CommonLib Dem 51.8%vs Conservative 21.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 39.1%vs Conservative 25.1%
Lib Dem share
-12.7pp
52.0%
North RichmondLib Dem 58.3%vs Conservative 18.4%May 2026 Lib Dem 60.5%vs Conservative 15.7%
Lib Dem share
+2.3pp
47.9%
South RichmondLib Dem 55.4%vs Conservative 22.2%May 2026 Lib Dem 45.1%vs Conservative 23.8%
Lib Dem share
-10.2pp
50.1%
TudorLib Dem 53.9%vs Conservative 26.9%May 2026 Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 20.2%
Lib Dem share
-7.2pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Richmond Park at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Richmond Park at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con gain from LDZac Goldsmith5.0%49.7%42.8%1.1% UKIP1.0%0.4%4,09176.2%
2015Con holdZac Goldsmith12.3%58.2%19.3%4.2% UKIP6.0%-23,01576.5%+0.3
2017Con holdZac Goldsmith9.1%45.1%45.1%0.7% UKIP--4579.1%+2.6
2019notionalLiberal Democrat winnerSarah Olney 2019 MP, pre-review boundary5.3%40.6%53.6%--0.5%7,72578.7%-0.4
2024LD holdSarah Olney9.7%21.8%54.6%6.2% Ref6.5%1.1%17,15569.6%-9.1

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Richmond Park

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Richmond Park. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.