Constituency profile

Gorton and Denton

North West · Borough constituency

Hannah Spencer MP
Sitting MP

Hannah Spencer

Green Party

First elected February 2026

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
41.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -10.5pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +19.9pp
vs Green 20.2%
NorthernRemain-leaningWorking-class profileDiverse

About the Gorton and Denton constituency

Gorton and Denton is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Hannah Spencer (Green Party), first elected in February 2026. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.8% to 14.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 13,413 votes on a 47.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 40.2% and the Greens on 20.2%, a margin of 19.9 points.

Who lives in Gorton and Denton? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
41.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
27.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
24.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
49.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
49.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
35.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
16.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
34.8%
UK average ~28%

How did Gorton and Denton vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 13,413 votes (36.7pp) · turnout 47.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Gorton and Denton

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Gorton and Denton within Manchester and Tameside

Gorton and Denton crosses council boundaries: Manchester (64%), Tameside (36%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Manchester
40 LSOAs
64%View projection ›
Tameside
23 LSOAs
36%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BurnageLabour 53.0%vs Green 14.2%May 2026 Green 45.8%vs Labour 29.3%
Labour→Green
+27.6pp
36.3%
Denton North EastLabour 45.8%vs Reform 15.0%May 2026 Reform 49.9%vs Labour 23.3%
Labour→Reform
+28.7pp
37.5%
Denton SouthLabour 48.7%vs Reform 14.8%May 2026 Reform 52.6%vs Green 21.0%
Labour→Reform
+34.0pp
37.4%
Denton WestLabour 49.1%vs Conservative 13.1%May 2026 Reform 49.6%vs Labour 23.8%
Labour→Reform
+30.9pp
43.4%
Gorton & Abbey HeyLabour 47.8%vs Reform 16.9%May 2026 Green 36.7%vs Labour 29.5%
Labour→Green
+22.0pp
27.8%
LevenshulmeLabour 52.3%vs Green 17.4%May 2026 Green 55.5%vs Labour 19.0%
Labour→Green
+35.7pp
38.1%
LongsightLabour 55.7%vs Reform 13.6%May 2026 Green 47.4%vs Labour 31.3%
Labour→Green
+30.5pp
32.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Gorton and Denton at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Gorton and Denton at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdAndrew Gwynne Denton and Reddish MP51.0%24.9%17.9%5.5% UKIP-0.8%9,83156.7%
2015predecessorLab holdAndrew Gwynne Denton and Reddish MP50.8%23.7%2.5%18.7% UKIP3.8%0.6%10,51158.5%+1.8
2017predecessorLab holdAndrew Gwynne Denton and Reddish MP63.5%28.0%2.2%4.5% UKIP1.2%0.5%14,07760.2%+1.7
2019notionalLabour winnerAndrew Gwynne Denton and Reddish MP, pre-review boundary67.2%18.9%5.8%-2.5%5.6%22,17561.7%
2024Lab holdAndrew Gwynne50.8%7.9%3.8%14.1% Ref13.2%10.3%13,41347.8%-13.9

Gorton and Denton was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Denton and Reddish (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Gorton and Denton

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Gorton and Denton. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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