Jarrow and Gateshead East
North East · Borough constituency
About the Jarrow and Gateshead East constituency
Jarrow and Gateshead East is a borough constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Kate Osborne (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 51.3% to 26.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,964 votes on a 52.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 40.9% and Reform UK on 36.8%, a margin of 4.0 points.
Who lives in Jarrow and Gateshead East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Jarrow and Gateshead East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Jarrow and Gateshead East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Jarrow and Gateshead East within South Tyneside and Gateshead
Jarrow and Gateshead East crosses council boundaries: South Tyneside (63%), Gateshead (37%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| South Tyneside | 63% | View projection › |
| Gateshead | 37% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bede | Labour 47.5%vs Reform 30.5% | May 2026 Reform 42.3%vs Others 25.5% | Labour→Reform +22.4pp | - |
| Boldon Colliery | Labour 51.4%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 34.7%vs Others 31.3% | Labour→Reform +18.8pp | - |
| Fellgate and Hedworth | Labour 54.9%vs Reform 25.5% | May 2026 Reform 39.2%vs Labour 33.5% | Labour→Reform +17.5pp | - |
| Felling | Labour 50.2%vs Reform 29.0% | May 2026 Reform 44.1%vs Labour 28.7% | Labour→Reform +18.3pp | 37.8% |
| Hebburn North | Labour 54.8%vs Reform 25.1% | May 2026 Reform 44.1%vs Labour 28.9% | Labour→Reform +22.4pp | - |
| Hebburn South | Labour 52.0%vs Reform 26.1% | May 2026 Reform 45.5%vs Green 22.4% | Labour→Reform +25.8pp | - |
| Monkton | Labour 51.6%vs Reform 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 42.5%vs Labour 30.0% | Labour→Reform +18.8pp | - |
| Pelaw and Heworth | Labour 48.5%vs Reform 25.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.0%vs Reform 33.5%now part of Pelaw Heworth Bill Quay | Labour→Lib Dem +31.0pp | 43.2% |
| Primrose | Labour 49.1%vs Reform 30.8% | May 2026 Reform 35.9%vs Others 32.8% | Labour→Reform +18.3pp | - |
| Wardley and Leam Lane | Labour 51.7%vs Reform 24.6% | May 2026 Reform 49.4%vs Labour 33.8% | Labour→Reform +21.4pp | 44.2% |
| Windy Nook and Whitehills | Labour 51.4%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 52.5%vs Labour 26.6% | Labour→Reform +25.1pp | 39.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Jarrow and Gateshead East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Jarrow and Gateshead East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Hepburn Jarrow MP | 53.9% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 12,908 | 60.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Hepburn Jarrow MP | 55.7% | 17.1% | 3.2% | 13,881 | 60.3%+0.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Hepburn Jarrow MP | 65.1% | 25.0% | 2.7% | 17,263 | 66.4%+6.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kate Osborne Jarrow MP, pre-review boundary | 49.2% | 23.7% | 6.5% | 10,317 | 57.0% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Kate Osborne | 51.3% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 8,964 | 52.3%-4.7 |
Jarrow and Gateshead East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Jarrow (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Jarrow and Gateshead East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Jarrow and Gateshead East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 29.9vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 12.4vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 28.5vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.6vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 27.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave59.0 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 24.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 27.0vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied54.1 / 52.5vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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