Jarrow and Gateshead East
North East · Borough constituency
About the Jarrow and Gateshead East constituency
Jarrow and Gateshead East is a borough constituency in the North East, spanning parts of South Tyneside, Gateshead and neighbouring councils. The sitting MP is Kate Osborne (Labour), first elected in December 2019.
At the 2024 general election, Labour won Jarrow and Gateshead East with 51.3% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK on 26.9%, a majority of 8,964 votes. Turnout was 52.3%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has Reform UK on 41.1% and Labour on 30.5% in Jarrow and Gateshead East, a margin of 10.6 points, a projected change from Labour since 2024. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Jarrow and Gateshead East is a Leave-leaning area (an estimated 59.0% voted Leave in 2016). About 23.5% of residents hold a degree, 54.1% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 43 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by Labour each time.
Who lives in Jarrow and Gateshead East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Jarrow and Gateshead East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Jarrow and Gateshead East
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 1,500 residents each, from the 2021 Census). Hover any area for detail.
Jarrow and Gateshead East within South Tyneside and Gateshead
Jarrow and Gateshead East crosses multiple council boundaries: South Tyneside (63%), Gateshead (37%). The figures below come from the council elections held on Thursday 7 May 2026 in each constituent council where they were held; for councils not in the 2026 election cycle the most recent available ward result is shown instead.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| South Tyneside | 63% | View projection › |
| Gateshead | 37% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Jarrow and Gateshead East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Jarrow and Gateshead East at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Hepburn Jarrow MP | 53.9% | 20.6% | 18.5% | 12,908 | 60.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Hepburn Jarrow MP | 55.7% | 17.1% | 3.2% | 13,881 | 60.3%+0.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Stephen Hepburn Jarrow MP | 65.1% | 25.0% | 2.7% | 17,263 | 66.4%+6.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kate Osborne Jarrow MP, pre-review boundary | 49.2% | 23.7% | 6.5% | 10,317 | 57.0% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Kate Osborne | 51.3% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 8,964 | 52.3%-4.7 |
Jarrow and Gateshead East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Jarrow (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Jarrow and Gateshead East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Jarrow and Gateshead East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 29.9vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 12.4vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 28.5vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 11.6vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 27.3vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 27.2vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent11.8 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↑Leave59.0 / 60.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate23.5 / 24.0vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent33.8 / 27.0vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied54.1 / 52.5vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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