Leeds Central and Headingley
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Leeds borough
About the Leeds Central and Headingley constituency
Leeds Central and Headingley is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Alex Sobel (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.2% to 23.5% for the Greens, a majority of 8,422 votes on a 44.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.7% and the Greens on 28.1%, a margin of 10.6 points.
Who lives in Leeds Central and Headingley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Leeds Central and Headingley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Leeds Central and Headingley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Leeds Central and Headingley within Leeds
Leeds Central and Headingley sits entirely within Leeds Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headingley & Hyde Park | Labour 47.9%vs Green 31.4% | May 2026 Green 70.6%vs Labour 20.8% | Labour→Green +33.2pp | 28.0% |
| Kirkstall | Labour 53.6%vs Green 20.0% | May 2026 Green 45.2%vs Labour 30.3% | Labour→Green +24.2pp | 41.6% |
| Little London & Woodhouse | Labour 52.7%vs Green 21.6% | May 2026 Green 60.2%vs Labour 23.0% | Labour→Green +34.1pp | 28.8% |
| Weetwood | Labour 47.9%vs Green 16.7% | May 2026 Labour 33.9%vs Lib Dem 27.9% | Labour share -14.0pp | 50.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Leeds Central and Headingley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Leeds Central and Headingley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Greg Mulholland Leeds North West MP | 21.0% | 26.6% | 47.5% | 9,103 | 66.5% |
| 2015predecessor | LD hold | Greg Mulholland Leeds North West MP | 30.1% | 18.6% | 36.8% | 2,907 | 70.0%+3.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from LD | Alex Sobel Leeds North West MP | 44.1% | 19.7% | 35.0% | 4,224 | 67.9%-2.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Alex Sobel Leeds North West MP, pre-review boundary | 63.4% | 17.9% | 11.2% | 19,879 | 57.9% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Alex Sobel | 50.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8,422 | 44.8%-13.1 |
Leeds Central and Headingley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Leeds North West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Leeds Central and Headingley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Leeds Central and Headingley. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3566.6 / 63.0vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied32.2 / 36.8vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent44.2 / 45.0vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied32.2 / 40.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent44.2 / 37.6vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3566.6 / 50.0vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied32.2 / 33.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent44.2 / 40.8vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3566.6 / 50.8vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied32.2 / 24.3vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3566.6 / 53.5vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent44.2 / 37.7vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied32.2 / 35.1vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3566.6 / 49.2vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent44.2 / 36.4vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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