Constituency profile

Leeds Central and Headingley

Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Leeds borough

Alex Sobel MP
Sitting MP

Alex Sobel

Labour (Co-op)

First elected June 2017

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
Borough constituency, Leeds council
Last 5 GE winners
LDLDLLL
Labour 3/5, Liberal Democrats 2/5
EU referendum 2016
43.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -8.9pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +10.6pp
vs Green 28.1%
NorthernRemain-leaningDiverse

About the Leeds Central and Headingley constituency

Leeds Central and Headingley is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Alex Sobel (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.2% to 23.5% for the Greens, a majority of 8,422 votes on a 44.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.7% and the Greens on 28.1%, a margin of 10.6 points.

Who lives in Leeds Central and Headingley? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
43.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
39.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
9.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
32.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
67.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
24.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
8.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
66.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Leeds Central and Headingley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 8,422 votes (26.7pp) · turnout 44.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Leeds Central and Headingley

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Leeds Central and Headingley within Leeds

Leeds Central and Headingley sits entirely within Leeds Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Leeds
58 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Headingley & Hyde ParkLabour 47.9%vs Green 31.4%May 2026 Green 70.6%vs Labour 20.8%
Labour→Green
+33.2pp
28.0%
KirkstallLabour 53.6%vs Green 20.0%May 2026 Green 45.2%vs Labour 30.3%
Labour→Green
+24.2pp
41.6%
Little London & WoodhouseLabour 52.7%vs Green 21.6%May 2026 Green 60.2%vs Labour 23.0%
Labour→Green
+34.1pp
28.8%
WeetwoodLabour 47.9%vs Green 16.7%May 2026 Labour 33.9%vs Lib Dem 27.9%
Labour share
-14.0pp
50.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Leeds Central and Headingley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Leeds Central and Headingley at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLD holdGreg Mulholland Leeds North West MP21.0%26.6%47.5%1.4% UKIP1.2%2.4%9,10366.5%
2015predecessorLD holdGreg Mulholland Leeds North West MP30.1%18.6%36.8%6.9% UKIP7.0%0.6%2,90770.0%+3.5
2017predecessorLab gain from LDAlex Sobel Leeds North West MP44.1%19.7%35.0%-1.3%-4,22467.9%-2.1
2019notionalLabour winnerAlex Sobel Leeds North West MP, pre-review boundary63.4%17.9%11.2%-3.5%4.0%19,87957.9%
2024Lab holdAlex Sobel50.2%7.1%8.3%7.6% Ref23.5%3.4%8,42244.8%-13.1

Leeds Central and Headingley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Leeds North West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Leeds Central and Headingley

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Leeds Central and Headingley. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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