Barking
London · Borough constituency · Barking and Dagenham
About the Barking constituency
Barking is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Nesil Caliskan (Labour), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.5% to 14.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 11,054 votes on a 45.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.9% and the Greens on 20.7%, a margin of 18.2 points.
Who lives in Barking? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Barking vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Barking
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Barking within Barking and Dagenham
Barking sits entirely within Barking and Dagenham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Barking and Dagenham | 100% | 2026 result › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey | Labour 52.0%vs Reform 12.1% | May 2026 Labour 38.8%vs Green 34.0% | Labour share -13.2pp | 31.9% |
| Alibon | Labour 41.9%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Labour 43.0%vs Reform 39.3% | Labour share +1.1pp | 33.2% |
| Barking Riverside | Labour 41.9%vs Reform 15.4% | May 2026 Labour 39.9%vs Green 33.7% | Labour share -2.0pp | 28.4% |
| Becontree | Labour 45.0%vs Green 14.8% | May 2026 Labour 38.0%vs Reform 27.4% | Labour share -6.9pp | 34.6% |
| Eastbury | Labour 42.7%vs Reform 15.3% | May 2026 Labour 32.4%vs Green 27.1% | Labour share -10.4pp | 33.7% |
| Gascoigne | Labour 45.0%vs Green 15.0% | May 2026 Green 38.2%vs Labour 36.0% | Labour→Green +16.1pp | 30.6% |
| Goresbrook | Labour 41.3%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Reform 42.0%vs Labour 28.6% | Labour→Reform +19.0pp | 35.1% |
| Longbridge | Labour 48.8%vs Conservative 18.0% | May 2026 Green 35.2%vs Labour 31.1% | Labour→Green +19.3pp | 43.6% |
| Mayesbrook | Labour 40.8%vs Reform 16.1% | May 2026 Labour 36.3%vs Reform 32.7% | Labour share -4.4pp | 33.2% |
| Northbury | Labour 52.0%vs Reform 13.2% | May 2026 Labour 39.8%vs Green 34.6% | Labour share -12.2pp | 30.3% |
| Parsloes | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Labour 28.4% | Labour→Reform +16.2pp | 36.5% |
| Thames View | Labour 46.5%vs Green 15.0% | May 2026 Labour 43.7%vs Green 28.5% | Labour share -2.8pp | 34.8% |
| Valence | Labour 42.5%vs Reform 21.6% | May 2026 Labour 39.5%vs Reform 37.9% | Labour share -2.9pp | 32.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Barking at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Barking at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Margaret Hodge | 54.3% | 17.8% | 8.2% | 16,555 | 61.4% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Margaret Hodge | 57.7% | 16.3% | 1.3% | 15,272 | 58.2%-3.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Margaret Hodge | 67.8% | 22.5% | 1.3% | 21,608 | 61.9%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Margaret Hodge 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 60.9% | 26.8% | 3.3% | 13,993 | 57.1%-4.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Nesil Caliskan | 44.5% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 11,054 | 45.7%-11.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Barking
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Barking. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied39.3 / 41.4vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 31.4vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+10.2 / 13.1vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied39.3 / 26.8vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 34.2vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+10.2 / 8.6vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied39.3 / 45.3vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+10.2 / 14.2vs 22.7
- ↑Social rent32.8 / 24.6vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied39.3 / 49.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+10.2 / 15.4vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent25.6 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied39.3 / 39.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+10.2 / 11.7vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3538.3 / 37.5vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.