Erith and Thamesmead
London · Borough constituency
About the Erith and Thamesmead constituency
Erith and Thamesmead is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Abena Oppong-Asare (Labour), MP since December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 55.1% to 14.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 16,302 votes on a 51.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 45.3% and Reform UK on 17.1%, a margin of 28.2 points.
Who lives in Erith and Thamesmead? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Erith and Thamesmead vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Erith and Thamesmead
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Erith and Thamesmead within Greenwich and Bexley
Erith and Thamesmead crosses council boundaries: Greenwich (65%), Bexley (35%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Greenwich | 65% | 2026 result › |
| Bexley | 35% | 2026 result › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Wood | Labour 57.2%vs Reform 15.0% | May 2026 Labour 35.6%vs Reform 23.6% | Labour share -21.6pp | 37.0% |
| Belvedere | Labour 49.5%vs Conservative 17.2% | May 2026 Labour 33.5%vs Reform 30.9% | Labour share -16.0pp | - |
| Erith | Labour 49.0%vs Reform 16.7% | May 2026 Labour 41.2%vs Reform 29.2% | Labour share -7.8pp | - |
| Plumstead & Glyndon | Labour 58.9%vs Reform 14.6% | May 2026 Labour 39.3%vs Green 27.3% | Labour share -19.6pp | 37.1% |
| Plumstead Common | Labour 57.2%vs Conservative 14.1% | May 2026 Green 35.2%vs Labour 29.7% | Labour→Green +27.2pp | 43.5% |
| Shooters Hill | Labour 62.1%vs Conservative 14.2% | May 2026 Green 46.7%vs Labour 27.5% | Labour→Green +36.2pp | 43.4% |
| Thamesmead East | Labour 51.2%vs Reform 16.5% | May 2026 Labour 50.5%vs Reform 24.2% | Labour share -0.8pp | - |
| Thamesmead Moorings | Labour 52.7%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Labour 49.5%vs Reform 21.2% | Labour share -3.1pp | 32.1% |
| West Thamesmead | Labour 57.6%vs Reform 15.8% | May 2026 Labour 32.6%vs Green 28.3% | Labour share -24.9pp | 30.3% |
| Woolwich Arsenal | Labour 59.5%vs Conservative 12.0% | May 2026 Labour 36.2%vs Green 31.4% | Labour share -23.2pp | 36.9% |
| Woolwich Common | Labour 53.3%vs Green 15.1% | May 2026 Labour 42.5%vs Green 30.0% | Labour share -10.7pp | 31.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Erith and Thamesmead at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Erith and Thamesmead at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Teresa Pearce | 44.9% | 31.5% | 12.0% | 5,703 | 60.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Teresa Pearce | 49.8% | 27.4% | 2.3% | 9,525 | 60.5%-0.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Teresa Pearce | 57.5% | 35.0% | 1.7% | 10,014 | 63.8%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Abena Oppong-Asare 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 58.4% | 28.2% | 4.9% | 12,988 | 56.2%-7.6 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Abena Oppong-Asare | 55.1% | 13.8% | 4.6% | 16,302 | 51.3%-4.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Erith and Thamesmead
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Erith and Thamesmead. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied41.4 / 39.3vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent31.4 / 32.8vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+13.1 / 10.2vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied41.4 / 50.0vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+13.1 / 17.2vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent25.1 / 29.7vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied41.4 / 46.6vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent31.4 / 27.7vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+13.1 / 13.4vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied41.4 / 51.0vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+13.1 / 15.8vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent25.1 / 28.0vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied41.4 / 39.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+13.1 / 11.7vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3534.9 / 37.5vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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