Edmonton and Winchmore Hill
London · Borough constituency · Enfield borough
About the Edmonton and Winchmore Hill constituency
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Kate Osamor (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.0% to 19.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,632 votes on a 54.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 39.9% and the Conservatives on 19.3%, a margin of 20.6 points.
Who lives in Edmonton and Winchmore Hill? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Edmonton and Winchmore Hill vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Edmonton and Winchmore Hill
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill within Enfield
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill sits entirely within Enfield Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Enfield | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bush Hill Park | Labour 42.2%vs Conservative 31.2% | May 2026 Conservative 48.7%vs Labour 18.6% | Labour→Conservative +20.5pp | 36.6% |
| Edmonton Green | Labour 54.8%vs Conservative 13.1% | May 2026 Labour 41.9%vs Green 22.8% | Labour share -12.9pp | 33.6% |
| Grange Park | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 28.3% | May 2026 Conservative 53.8%vs Green 14.8% | Labour→Conservative +26.0pp | 55.6% |
| Haselbury | Labour 52.6%vs Conservative 14.8% | May 2026 Labour 30.8%vs Conservative 24.2% | Labour share -21.8pp | 34.3% |
| Highfield | Labour 48.1%vs Conservative 20.9% | May 2026 Conservative 40.3%vs Green 21.8% | Labour→Conservative +24.1pp | 41.7% |
| Jubilee | Labour 55.0%vs Conservative 16.4% | May 2026 Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 27.9% | Labour share -17.9pp | 35.4% |
| Lower Edmonton | Labour 54.5%vs Conservative 13.8% | May 2026 Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 21.4% | Labour share -12.1pp | 32.7% |
| Upper Edmonton | Labour 56.4%vs Conservative 13.1% | May 2026 Labour 32.7%vs Others 21.8% | Labour share -23.7pp | 32.3% |
| Winchmore Hill | Labour 41.7%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Conservative 46.4%vs Green 20.0% | Labour→Conservative +23.0pp | 50.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Edmonton and Winchmore Hill at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Edmonton and Winchmore Hill at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Andy Love Edmonton MP | 53.7% | 29.8% | 10.5% | 9,613 | 63.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Kate Osamor Edmonton MP | 61.4% | 24.1% | 2.2% | 15,419 | 62.6%-0.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Kate Osamor Edmonton MP | 71.5% | 23.1% | 2.0% | 21,115 | 66.4%+3.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kate Osamor Edmonton MP, pre-review boundary | 58.2% | 31.1% | 6.7% | 13,067 | 64.2% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Kate Osamor | 50.0% | 19.2% | 6.6% | 12,632 | 54.2%-10.0 |
Edmonton and Winchmore Hill was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Edmonton (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Edmonton and Winchmore Hill
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Edmonton and Winchmore Hill. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied50.0 / 51.0vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent29.7 / 28.0vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+17.2 / 15.8vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.2 / 44.7vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.0 / 53.1vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent29.7 / 27.0vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.2 / 48.1vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+17.2 / 18.8vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied50.0 / 58.0vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied50.0 / 49.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent29.7 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.2 / 46.3vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.0 / 41.4vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+17.2 / 13.1vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent29.7 / 25.1vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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