Croydon East
London · Borough constituency · Croydon borough
About the Croydon East constituency
Croydon East is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Natasha Irons (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.4% to 26.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,825 votes on a 57.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 33.8% and the Conservatives on 28.9%, a margin of 4.9 points.
Who lives in Croydon East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Croydon East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Croydon East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Croydon East within Croydon
Croydon East sits entirely within Croydon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Croydon | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Addiscombe East | Labour 45.1%vs Conservative 25.3% | May 2026 Labour 28.9%vs Conservative 27.7% | Labour share -16.3pp | 48.1% |
| Addiscombe West | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 20.6% | May 2026 Labour 36.9%vs Green 26.6% | Labour share -9.9pp | 39.0% |
| New Addington North | Labour 49.0%vs Conservative 20.9% | May 2026 Labour 36.3%vs Reform 27.2% | Labour share -12.8pp | 32.5% |
| New Addington South | Labour 44.6%vs Conservative 24.5% | May 2026 Reform 33.0%vs Conservative 29.0% | Labour→Reform +20.7pp | 36.3% |
| Selsdon & Addington Village | Conservative 36.4%vs Labour 34.6% | May 2026 Conservative 37.8%vs Reform 20.9% | Conservative share +1.4pp | 48.8% |
| Selsdon Vale & Forestdale | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 33.4% | May 2026 Conservative 37.6%vs Reform 22.9% | Conservative share +2.4pp | 49.0% |
| Shirley North | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Conservative 32.4%vs Reform 23.3% | Labour→Conservative +11.3pp | 44.0% |
| Shirley South | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 32.6% | May 2026 Conservative 34.0%vs Reform 21.3% | Labour→Conservative +11.1pp | 49.4% |
| Woodside | Labour 51.1%vs Conservative 18.3% | May 2026 Labour 36.8%vs Green 30.8% | Labour share -14.4pp | 38.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Croydon East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Croydon East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Gavin Barwell Croydon Central MP | 33.6% | 39.4% | 13.2% | 2,879 | 65.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Gavin Barwell Croydon Central MP | 42.7% | 43.0% | 2.2% | 165 | 67.7%+2.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Sarah Jones Croydon Central MP | 52.3% | 42.4% | 1.9% | 5,652 | 71.3%+3.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Sarah Jones Croydon Central MP, pre-review boundary | 48.1% | 41.3% | 6.6% | 3,413 | 67.2% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Natasha Irons | 42.4% | 26.8% | 8.1% | 6,825 | 57.2%-10.0 |
Croydon East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Croydon Central (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Croydon East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Croydon East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave48.1 / 49.2vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent21.7 / 19.4vs 16.8
- ↓Leave48.1 / 49.9vs 53.2
- ↓Leave48.1 / 44.7vs 53.2
- ↓Leave48.1 / 44.2vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent21.7 / 19.2vs 16.8
- ↑Social rent21.7 / 24.3vs 16.8
- ↓Leave48.1 / 50.8vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.