Portsmouth South
South East · Borough constituency · Portsmouth borough
About the Portsmouth South constituency
Portsmouth South is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Stephen Morgan (Labour), first elected in June 2017. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.4% to 14.7% for Reform UK, a majority of 13,155 votes on a 52.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.8% and Reform UK on 28.1%, a margin of 8.8 points.
Who lives in Portsmouth South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Portsmouth South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Portsmouth South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Portsmouth South within Portsmouth
Portsmouth South sits entirely within Portsmouth Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Southsea | Labour 54.4%vs Reform 13.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 42.6%vs Green 20.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +32.9pp | - |
| Charles Dickens | Labour 47.9%vs Reform 19.4% | May 2026 Reform 30.0%vs Lib Dem 27.4% | Labour→Reform +18.7pp | - |
| Eastney and Craneswater | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 21.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 40.6%vs Reform 23.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +30.7pp | - |
| Fratton | Labour 47.6%vs Reform 15.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 39.3%vs Reform 30.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.2pp | - |
| Milton | Labour 49.7%vs Lib Dem 15.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.7%vs Reform 26.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +36.4pp | - |
| St Jude | Labour 49.8%vs Conservative 14.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.6%vs Labour 20.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +29.7pp | - |
| St Thomas | Labour 45.4%vs Conservative 16.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.3%vs Reform 20.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +32.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Portsmouth South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Portsmouth South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Mike Hancock | 13.7% | 33.3% | 45.9% | 5,200 | 58.7% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Flick Drummond | 19.5% | 34.8% | 22.3% | 5,241 | 58.5%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Lab gain from Con | Stephen Morgan | 41.0% | 37.6% | 17.3% | 1,554 | 63.9%+5.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Stephen Morgan 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 48.6% | 37.3% | 11.4% | 5,363 | 63.9%+0.0 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Stephen Morgan | 48.4% | 14.5% | 12.6% | 13,155 | 52.8%-11.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Portsmouth South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Portsmouth South. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied41.9 / 44.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent36.4 / 33.2vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3544.5 / 40.6vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied41.9 / 45.1vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent36.4 / 34.9vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3544.5 / 41.2vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied41.9 / 35.1vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent36.4 / 36.4vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3544.5 / 49.2vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied41.9 / 43.3vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3544.5 / 42.4vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent36.4 / 28.4vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3544.5 / 47.7vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent36.4 / 33.2vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied41.9 / 51.6vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.