Constituency profile

Southampton Test

South East · Borough constituency · Southampton borough

Satvir Kaur MP
Sitting MP

Satvir Kaur

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
Borough constituency, Southampton council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
49.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -2.5pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +13.0pp
vs Reform UK 25.6%
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the Southampton Test constituency

Southampton Test is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Satvir Kaur (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.5% to 18.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,333 votes on a 54.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.7% and Reform UK on 25.6%, a margin of 13.0 points.

Who lives in Southampton Test? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
49.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
33.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
17.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
44.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
54.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
34.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
15.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
40.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Southampton Test vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 9,333 votes (26.0pp) · turnout 54.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Southampton Test

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Southampton Test within Southampton

Southampton Test sits entirely within Southampton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Southampton
66 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Banister & PolygonLabour 43.4%vs Reform 19.4%May 2026 Green 38.7%vs Labour 27.4%
Labour→Green
+21.6pp
36.4%
BevoisLabour 54.0%vs Reform 13.0%May 2026 Labour 31.3%vs Others 23.8%
Labour share
-22.6pp
34.5%
CoxfordLabour 40.2%vs Conservative 20.4%May 2026 Reform 39.8%vs Conservative 18.9%
Labour→Reform
+21.9pp
35.4%
FreemantleLabour 45.5%vs Conservative 20.2%May 2026 Green 31.1%vs Labour 29.0%
Labour→Green
+18.8pp
38.5%
MillbrookLabour 42.4%vs Conservative 22.8%May 2026 Reform 28.6%vs Conservative 27.8%
Labour→Reform
+17.6pp
32.1%
PortswoodLabour 40.3%vs Conservative 16.8%May 2026 Green 38.6%vs Labour 23.3%
Labour→Green
+20.4pp
45.0%
RedbridgeLabour 45.3%vs Conservative 19.2%May 2026 Reform 40.1%vs Labour 19.5%
Labour→Reform
+24.9pp
29.2%
ShirleyLabour 44.6%vs Conservative 21.3%May 2026 Lib Dem 28.6%vs Labour 25.3%
Labour→Lib Dem
+19.2pp
42.2%
SwaythlingConservative 35.9%vs Lib Dem 26.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 33.4%vs Green 22.4%
Conservative→Lib Dem
+17.6pp
35.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Southampton Test at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Southampton Test at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdAlan Whitehead38.5%33.0%22.3%3.9% UKIP2.0%0.3%2,41361.4%
2015Lab holdAlan Whitehead41.3%32.5%4.9%12.8% UKIP5.9%2.7%3,81062.1%+0.7
2017Lab holdAlan Whitehead58.7%34.1%4.0%--3.2%11,50366.8%+4.7
2019notionalLabour winnerAlan Whitehead 2019 MP, pre-review boundary49.5%35.7%7.7%-3.2%3.9%6,21364.3%-2.5
2024Lab holdSatvir Kaur44.5%18.5%9.1%14.7% Ref10.0%3.2%9,33354.6%-9.7

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Southampton Test

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Southampton Test. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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