Rutland and Stamford
East Midlands · County constituency
About the Rutland and Stamford constituency
Rutland and Stamford is a county constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Alicia Kearns (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 43.7% to 22.3% for Labour, a majority of 10,394 votes on a 67.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 39.1% and Reform UK on 22.8%, a margin of 16.3 points.
Who lives in Rutland and Stamford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rutland and Stamford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rutland and Stamford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rutland and Stamford within Rutland and South Kesteven and 1 other council
Rutland and Stamford crosses council boundaries: Rutland (46%), South Kesteven (39%), Harborough (14%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Rutland | 46% |
| South Kesteven | 39% |
| Harborough | 14% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2025 | Barleythorpe | Con GAIN from Grn | Con 36% LD 23% Ref 21% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Oakham North East | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barleythorpe | Conservative 38.1%vs Labour 26.2% | 2023 Independent 47.3%vs Green 36.3% | - | 42.1% |
| Billesdon & Tilton | Conservative 52.1%vs Labour 17.8% | 2023 Conservative 50.5%vs Lib Dem 31.9% | - | 36.4% |
| Braunston & Martinsthorpe | Conservative 45.9%vs Labour 21.0% | 2023 Conservative 60.1%vs Lib Dem 39.9% | - | 46.4% |
| Casewick | Conservative 45.4%vs Labour 23.1% | 2023 Conservative 56.9%vs Green 43.1% | - | 39.2% |
| Castle | Conservative 49.7%vs Reform 16.4% | 2019 Conservative 47.8%vs Independent 42.8% | - | 39.5% |
| Cottesmore | Conservative 40.7%vs Labour 24.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 40.0%vs Independent 36.5% | - | 41.6% |
| Dole Wood | Conservative 46.7%vs Labour 21.2% | 2023 Conservative 53.8%vs Independent 46.2% | - | 38.6% |
| Exton | Conservative 45.5%vs Labour 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 51.8%vs Independent 48.2% | - | 36.8% |
| Glen | Conservative 54.1%vs Labour 18.1% | 2019 Conservative 75.0%vs Reform 25.0% | - | 34.1% |
| Greetham | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Independent 79.3%vs Conservative 20.7% | - | 37.7% |
| Isaac Newton | Conservative 45.1%vs Labour 20.9% | 2023 Conservative 66.1%vs Labour 17.1% | - | 30.5% |
| Ketton | Conservative 52.8%vs Labour 18.1% | 2023 Conservative 69.2%vs Lib Dem 30.8% | - | 32.8% |
| Langham | Conservative 48.6%vs Labour 20.5% | 2023 Independent 47.2%vs Conservative 35.3% | - | 40.0% |
| Lyddington | Conservative 43.6%vs Labour 22.7% | 2019 Independent 70.1%vs Conservative 29.9% | - | 47.5% |
| Nevill | Conservative 51.0%vs Labour 21.5% | 2023 Conservative 66.2%vs Lib Dem 21.0% | - | 39.4% |
| Normanton | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 23.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 71.3%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 36.2% |
| Oakham North East | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 82.4%vs Conservative 17.6% | - | 32.5% |
| Oakham North West | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 29.1% | 2023 Labour 47.4%vs Independent 36.6% | - | 21.2% |
| Oakham South | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 24.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 81.2%vs Conservative 11.2% | - | 41.0% |
| Ryhall & Casterton | Conservative 45.1%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Conservative 50.4%vs Independent 30.9% | - | 39.2% |
| Stamford All Saints | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 24.9% | 2023 Conservative 41.1%vs Lib Dem 31.9% | - | 36.5% |
| Stamford St George's | Conservative 43.1%vs Labour 24.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 36.1% | - | 31.5% |
| Stamford St John's | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 23.4% | 2023 Independent 58.9%vs Conservative 41.1% | - | 33.0% |
| Stamford St Mary's | Conservative 38.5%vs Labour 25.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 36.8%vs Conservative 23.1% | - | 51.8% |
| Thurnby & Houghton | Conservative 44.4%vs Lib Dem 20.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 58.3%vs Conservative 22.3% | - | 38.5% |
| Uppingham | Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 24.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 67.4%vs Conservative 32.6% | - | 47.6% |
| Whissendine | Conservative 50.3%vs Reform 15.2% | 2019 Independent 36.9%vs Conservative 33.7% | - | 46.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rutland and Stamford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rutland and Stamford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP | 14.3% | 51.1% | 25.8% | 14,000 | 71.5% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP | 15.4% | 55.6% | 8.1% | 21,705 | 68.5%-3.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Alan Duncan Rutland and Melton MP | 22.7% | 62.8% | 8.2% | 23,104 | 73.4%+4.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Alicia Kearns Rutland and Melton MP, pre-review boundary | 14.7% | 63.3% | 15.8% | 25,537 | 75.9% |
| 2024 | Con hold | Alicia Kearns | 22.3% | 43.7% | 12.9% | 10,394 | 67.7%-8.2 |
Rutland and Stamford was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Rutland and Melton (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Rutland and Stamford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rutland and Stamford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 25.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 24.8vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.4 / 57.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 71.8vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 24.6vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 13.3vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 24.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.1 / 28.7vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied71.4 / 70.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.8 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3524.0 / 25.0vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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