Constituency profile

Aldridge-Brownhills

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Walsall borough

Wendy Morton MP
Sitting MP

Wendy Morton

Conservative

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Walsall council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
67.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +15.9pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +1.2pp
Vulnerability score 7/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
MidlandsStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Aldridge-Brownhills constituency

Aldridge-Brownhills is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Wendy Morton (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.9% to 28.4% for Labour, a majority of 4,294 votes on a 58.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.3% and the Conservatives on 33.1%, a margin of 1.2 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Aldridge-Brownhills? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
67.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
27.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
75.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
23.9%
UK average ~36%
Median age
45.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
27.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
25.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Aldridge-Brownhills vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 4,294 votes (10.5pp) · turnout 58.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Aldridge-Brownhills

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Aldridge-Brownhills within Walsall

Aldridge-Brownhills sits entirely within Walsall Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Walsall
61 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Aldridge Central and SouthConservative 41.3%vs Labour 26.4%May 2026 Conservative 40.5%vs Reform 37.4%
Conservative share
-0.9pp
46.6%
Aldridge North and Walsall WoodConservative 37.7%vs Labour 28.3%May 2026 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 37.7%
Conservative→Reform
+7.9pp
42.1%
BrownhillsConservative 34.9%vs Labour 32.1%May 2026 Reform 48.5%vs Conservative 27.2%
Conservative→Reform
+16.2pp
37.9%
PaddockLabour 28.1%vs Conservative 26.1%May 2026 Conservative 29.1%vs Others 23.2%
Labour→Conservative
+9.9pp
49.0%
PelsallConservative 43.4%vs Labour 25.2%May 2026 Reform 42.7%vs Conservative 33.1%
Conservative→Reform
+15.5pp
42.8%
Pheasey Park FarmConservative 38.3%vs Labour 27.7%May 2026 Reform 37.5%vs Conservative 34.9%
Conservative→Reform
+7.5pp
46.1%
Rushall-ShelfieldLabour 33.0%vs Conservative 31.5%May 2026 Reform 40.9%vs Conservative 19.0%
Labour→Reform
+15.7pp
38.5%
StreetlyConservative 43.7%vs Labour 24.8%May 2026 Reform 38.6%vs Conservative 38.0%
Conservative→Reform
+10.5pp
46.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Aldridge-Brownhills at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Aldridge-Brownhills at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdRichard Shepherd19.8%59.3%17.7%-2.2%1.0%15,26665.6%
2015Con holdWendy Morton22.4%52.0%3.4%19.6% UKIP2.1%0.5%11,72365.6%+0.0
2017Con holdWendy Morton29.8%65.4%3.3%--1.4%14,30766.7%+1.1
2019notionalConservative winnerWendy Morton 2019 MP, pre-review boundary21.5%69.6%5.6%-1.8%1.5%22,75864.7%-2.0
2024Con holdWendy Morton28.4%38.9%4.3%24.2% Ref4.3%-4,29458.2%-6.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Aldridge-Brownhills

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aldridge-Brownhills. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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