Aldridge-Brownhills
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Walsall borough
About the Aldridge-Brownhills constituency
Aldridge-Brownhills is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Wendy Morton (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.9% to 28.4% for Labour, a majority of 4,294 votes on a 58.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 34.3% and the Conservatives on 33.1%, a margin of 1.2 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Aldridge-Brownhills? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aldridge-Brownhills vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aldridge-Brownhills
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Aldridge-Brownhills within Walsall
Aldridge-Brownhills sits entirely within Walsall Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Walsall | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldridge Central and South | Conservative 41.3%vs Labour 26.4% | May 2026 Conservative 40.5%vs Reform 37.4% | Conservative share -0.9pp | 46.6% |
| Aldridge North and Walsall Wood | Conservative 37.7%vs Labour 28.3% | May 2026 Reform 41.5%vs Conservative 37.7% | Conservative→Reform +7.9pp | 42.1% |
| Brownhills | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 32.1% | May 2026 Reform 48.5%vs Conservative 27.2% | Conservative→Reform +16.2pp | 37.9% |
| Paddock | Labour 28.1%vs Conservative 26.1% | May 2026 Conservative 29.1%vs Others 23.2% | Labour→Conservative +9.9pp | 49.0% |
| Pelsall | Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 25.2% | May 2026 Reform 42.7%vs Conservative 33.1% | Conservative→Reform +15.5pp | 42.8% |
| Pheasey Park Farm | Conservative 38.3%vs Labour 27.7% | May 2026 Reform 37.5%vs Conservative 34.9% | Conservative→Reform +7.5pp | 46.1% |
| Rushall-Shelfield | Labour 33.0%vs Conservative 31.5% | May 2026 Reform 40.9%vs Conservative 19.0% | Labour→Reform +15.7pp | 38.5% |
| Streetly | Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 24.8% | May 2026 Reform 38.6%vs Conservative 38.0% | Conservative→Reform +10.5pp | 46.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aldridge-Brownhills at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aldridge-Brownhills at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Richard Shepherd | 19.8% | 59.3% | 17.7% | 15,266 | 65.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Wendy Morton | 22.4% | 52.0% | 3.4% | 11,723 | 65.6%+0.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Wendy Morton | 29.8% | 65.4% | 3.3% | 14,307 | 66.7%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Wendy Morton 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 21.5% | 69.6% | 5.6% | 22,758 | 64.7%-2.0 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Wendy Morton | 28.4% | 38.9% | 4.3% | 4,294 | 58.2%-6.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Aldridge-Brownhills
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aldridge-Brownhills. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave67.8 / 71.1vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.7 / 12.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 70.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.8 / 65.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate27.5 / 25.0vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent10.7 / 14.2vs 20.2
- ↑Leave67.8 / 69.5vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.7 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 76.4vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.8 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.7 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↑Leave67.8 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied75.4 / 77.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.7 / 10.4vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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