Constituency profile

Bethnal Green and Stepney

London · Borough constituency · Tower Hamlets borough

Rushanara Ali MP
Sitting MP

Rushanara Ali

Labour

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Tower Hamlets council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
32.5% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -19.4pp below mean
Current outlook
Others +5.7pp
Vulnerability score 10/10 (Labour projected to lose)
LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Bethnal Green and Stepney constituency

Bethnal Green and Stepney is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Rushanara Ali (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.1% to 33.6% for other parties, a majority of 1,689 votes on a 57.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 29.4% and Labour on 23.7%, a margin of 5.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Bethnal Green and Stepney? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
32.5%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
46.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
20.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
76.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
30.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
7.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
53.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Bethnal Green and Stepney vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 1,689 votes (0.5pp) · turnout 57.3%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bethnal Green and Stepney

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bethnal Green and Stepney within Tower Hamlets

Bethnal Green and Stepney sits entirely within Tower Hamlets Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Tower Hamlets
69 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Bethnal Green EastLabour 35.1%vs Others 31.9%May 2026 Others 39.3%vs Green 27.9%
Labour→Others
+25.3pp
-
Bethnal Green WestLabour 35.1%vs Others 31.9%May 2026 Others 51.7%vs Green 22.0%
Labour→Others
+34.3pp
-
ShadwellOthers 37.2%vs Labour 31.6%May 2026 Others 40.8%vs Labour 22.2%
Others→Others
+39.0pp
-
Spitalfields & BanglatownLabour 34.6%vs Others 33.2%May 2026 Others 50.0%vs Labour 23.8%
Labour→Others
+30.4pp
-
St Dunstan'sOthers 36.2%vs Labour 33.5%May 2026 Others 45.8%vs Labour 26.3%
Others→Others
+41.0pp
-
Stepney GreenOthers 35.2%vs Labour 33.1%May 2026 Others 50.7%vs Green 17.6%
Others→Others
+42.9pp
-
WeaversLabour 35.2%vs Others 31.5%May 2026 Others 34.7%vs Green 28.9%
Labour→Others
+22.1pp
-
WhitechapelLabour 33.9%vs Others 33.8%May 2026 Others 47.2%vs Labour 21.6%
Labour→Others
+29.7pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bethnal Green and Stepney at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bethnal Green and Stepney at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab gain from ResRushanara Ali Bethnal Green and Bow MP42.9%13.9%20.1%-1.7%21.3%11,57462.4%
2015predecessorLab holdRushanara Ali Bethnal Green and Bow MP61.2%15.2%4.5%6.1% UKIP9.3%3.7%24,31764.0%+1.6
2017predecessorLab holdRushanara Ali Bethnal Green and Bow MP71.8%12.7%5.0%1.5% UKIP2.5%6.5%35,39369.5%+5.5
2019notionalLabour winnerRushanara Ali Bethnal Green and Bow MP, pre-review boundary73.5%10.1%9.3%-4.2%2.9%31,65564.9%
2024Lab holdRushanara Ali34.1%4.1%10.2%4.2% Ref13.7%33.7%1,68957.3%-7.6

Bethnal Green and Stepney was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bethnal Green and Bow (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Bethnal Green and Stepney

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bethnal Green and Stepney. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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