Brent East
London · Borough constituency · Brent borough
About the Brent East constituency
Brent East is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Dawn Butler (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 51.2% to 16.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 13,047 votes on a 48.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.8% and the Conservatives on 17.5%, a margin of 26.3 points.
Who lives in Brent East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Brent East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Brent East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Brent East within Brent
Brent East sits entirely within Brent Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Brent | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brondesbury Park | Labour 51.3%vs Conservative 17.0% | May 2026 Labour 48.9%vs Green 26.8% | Labour share -2.5pp | - |
| Cricklewood & Mapesbury | Labour 52.4%vs Conservative 15.8% | May 2026 Labour 41.6%vs Green 27.2% | Labour share -10.7pp | - |
| Dollis Hill | Labour 50.7%vs Conservative 16.4% | May 2026 Labour 40.9%vs Green 22.4% | Labour share -9.9pp | - |
| Kingsbury | Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 19.3% | May 2026 Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 24.6% | Labour share -16.6pp | - |
| Roundwood | Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 16.0% | May 2026 Labour 45.0%vs Green 31.1% | Labour share -6.4pp | - |
| Stonebridge | Labour 51.3%vs Conservative 15.3% | May 2026 Labour 37.4%vs Green 23.2% | Labour share -13.9pp | - |
| Welsh Harp | Labour 50.6%vs Conservative 19.4% | May 2026 Conservative 26.9%vs Labour 26.8% | Labour→Conservative +15.6pp | - |
| Willesden Green | Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 15.9% | May 2026 Labour 35.9%vs Green 35.1% | Labour share -15.8pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Brent East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Brent East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD gain from Lab | Sarah Teather Brent Central MP | 41.2% | 11.2% | 44.2% | 1,345 | 61.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab gain from LD | Dawn Butler Brent Central MP | 62.1% | 20.3% | 8.4% | 19,649 | 61.1%-0.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Dawn Butler Brent Central MP | 73.1% | 19.5% | 4.8% | 27,997 | 65.0%+3.9 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Dawn Butler Brent Central MP, pre-review boundary | 63.8% | 23.5% | 9.0% | 17,756 | 58.0% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Dawn Butler | 51.2% | 16.7% | 7.0% | 13,047 | 48.7%-9.3 |
Brent East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Brent Central (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Brent East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Brent East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied34.1 / 26.8vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent35.6 / 36.0vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent28.0 / 34.2vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied34.1 / 39.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent35.6 / 36.1vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.9 / 11.7vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied34.1 / 27.1vs 61.9
- ↓Leave36.4 / 33.4vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent35.6 / 33.3vs 20.2
- ↑Private rent35.6 / 35.8vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied34.1 / 44.3vs 61.9
- ↓Leave36.4 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓Leave36.4 / 33.5vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied34.1 / 45.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent35.6 / 30.1vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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