Cheadle
North West · Borough constituency · Stockport borough
About the Cheadle constituency
Cheadle is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Tom Morrison (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 46.7% to 22.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,235 votes on a 68.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 45.7% and the Conservatives on 21.0%, a margin of 24.6 points.
Who lives in Cheadle? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Cheadle vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Cheadle
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Cheadle within Stockport
Cheadle sits entirely within Stockport Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Stockport | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bramhall North | Lib Dem 43.5%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.4%vs Reform 23.8% | Lib Dem share +1.9pp | 48.9% |
| Bramhall South & Woodford | Lib Dem 46.8%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.4%vs Conservative 36.2% | Lib Dem share -5.3pp | 53.5% |
| Cheadle East & Cheadle Hulme North | Lib Dem 38.3%vs Labour 29.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.0%vs Reform 27.0% | Lib Dem share +5.8pp | 41.0% |
| Cheadle Hulme South | Lib Dem 52.3%vs Conservative 21.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 56.0%vs Reform 19.8% | Lib Dem share +3.6pp | 45.6% |
| Cheadle West & Gatley | Lib Dem 51.4%vs Conservative 17.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.2%vs Reform 19.5% | Lib Dem share -5.3pp | 43.1% |
| Davenport & Cale Green | Labour 49.1%vs Reform 13.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 28.1%vs Labour 22.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +20.6pp | 39.6% |
| Heald Green | Lib Dem 39.1%vs Conservative 20.8% | May 2026 Others 35.8%vs Lib Dem 27.6% | Lib Dem→Others +23.7pp | 43.9% |
| Norbury & Woodsmoor | Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 26.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.3%vs Reform 25.9% | Lib Dem share +0.6pp | 48.8% |
| Offerton | Lib Dem 38.8%vs Labour 25.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.7%vs Reform 30.5% | Lib Dem share -3.1pp | 43.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Cheadle at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Cheadle at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Mark Hunter | 9.4% | 40.8% | 47.1% | 3,272 | 73.3% |
| 2015 | Con gain from LD | Mary Robinson | 16.3% | 43.1% | 31.0% | 6,453 | 72.5%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mary Robinson | 19.1% | 44.6% | 36.3% | 4,507 | 74.3%+1.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mary Robinson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 12.3% | 46.0% | 41.8% | 2,336 | 75.8%+1.5 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Tom Morrison | 15.6% | 22.6% | 46.7% | 12,235 | 68.2%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Cheadle
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cheadle. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied81.5 / 74.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate44.0 / 47.3vs 33.7
- ↓Leave42.6 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied81.5 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent6.5 / 8.7vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate44.0 / 41.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied81.5 / 74.3vs 61.9
- ↓Leave42.6 / 38.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.0 / 48.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied81.5 / 75.4vs 61.9
- ↓Leave42.6 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.0 / 46.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied81.5 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↓Leave42.6 / 42.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate44.0 / 47.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.