Constituency profile

Cities of London and Westminster

London · Borough constituency

Rachel Blake MP
Sitting MP

Rachel Blake

Labour (Co-op)

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
28.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -23.8pp below mean
Current outlook
Conservative +2.6pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Cities of London and Westminster constituency

Cities of London and Westminster is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Rachel Blake (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.0% to 32.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,708 votes on a 53.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 36.7% and Labour on 34.0%, a margin of 2.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Cities of London and Westminster? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
28.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
62.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
10.4%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
29.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
69.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
14.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
41.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Cities of London and Westminster vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 2,708 votes (6.9pp) · turnout 53.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Cities of London and Westminster

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Cities of London and Westminster within Westminster and City of London

Cities of London and Westminster crosses council boundaries: Westminster (92%), City of London (8%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Westminster
71 LSOAs
92%View projection ›
City of London
6 LSOAs
8%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Abbey RoadLabour 39.6%vs Conservative 34.5%May 2026 Conservative 45.1%vs Labour 17.1%
Labour→Conservative
+16.6pp
38.1%
AldersgateLabour 39.2%vs Conservative 28.4%2022 Independent 100.0%uncontested-40.0%
CripplegateLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 25.3%2022 Independent 63.5%vs Labour 36.5%--
Farringdon WithoutLabour 41.2%vs Conservative 27.5%2022 Others 96.2%vs Labour 3.8%--
Hyde ParkLabour 41.4%vs Conservative 29.6%May 2026 Conservative 40.4%vs Labour 36.1%
Labour→Conservative
+8.0pp
36.5%
Knightsbridge & BelgraviaConservative 38.5%vs Labour 31.7%May 2026 Conservative 51.9%vs Reform 16.5%
Conservative share
+13.3pp
33.3%
MaryleboneConservative 33.0%vs Labour 32.2%May 2026 Conservative 43.5%vs Lib Dem 24.2%
Conservative share
+10.5pp
35.5%
Pimlico NorthLabour 37.4%vs Conservative 31.7%May 2026 Conservative 45.0%vs Labour 21.8%
Labour→Conservative
+14.4pp
38.8%
Pimlico SouthLabour 45.3%vs Conservative 29.8%May 2026 Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 33.6%
Labour share
-7.0pp
45.2%
PortsokenLabour 43.9%vs Conservative 22.7%2022 Independent 82.3%vs Labour 14.6%--
Regent's ParkLabour 39.1%vs Conservative 35.1%May 2026 Conservative 49.5%vs Labour 19.1%
Labour→Conservative
+17.2pp
35.4%
St James'sLabour 39.5%vs Conservative 31.2%May 2026 Conservative 44.8%vs Labour 20.6%
Labour→Conservative
+16.2pp
33.8%
Vincent SquareLabour 42.3%vs Conservative 31.8%May 2026 Conservative 47.3%vs Labour 25.1%
Labour→Conservative
+16.4pp
40.2%
West EndLabour 43.0%vs Conservative 28.8%May 2026 Conservative 39.7%vs Labour 30.3%
Labour→Conservative
+11.8pp
33.3%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Cities of London and Westminster at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Cities of London and Westminster at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdMark Field22.2%52.2%20.5%1.8% UKIP2.1%1.3%11,07655.2%
2015Con holdMark Field27.4%54.1%7.0%5.2% UKIP5.4%1.0%9,67159.3%+4.1
2017Con holdMark Field38.4%46.6%11.0%1.1% UKIP2.1%0.7%3,14862.8%+3.5
2019notionalConservative winnerNickie Aiken 2019 MP, pre-review boundary28.9%40.3%28.2%-1.9%0.7%5,97671.3%+8.5
2024Lab gain from ConRachel Blake39.0%32.1%11.1%7.0% Ref7.3%3.5%2,70853.4%-17.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Cities of London and Westminster

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Cities of London and Westminster. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.