Constituency profile

Hampstead and Highgate

London · Borough constituency

Tulip Siddiq MP
Sitting MP

Tulip Siddiq

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
25.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -26.8pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +19.9pp
vs Conservative 19.2%
LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Hampstead and Highgate constituency

Hampstead and Highgate is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Tulip Siddiq (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.3% to 17.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 14,970 votes on a 60.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 39.1% and the Conservatives on 19.2%, a margin of 19.9 points.

Who lives in Hampstead and Highgate? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
25.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
64.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
10.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
37.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
61.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
37.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
15.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
36.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Hampstead and Highgate vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 14,970 votes (30.9pp) · turnout 60.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Hampstead and Highgate

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Hampstead and Highgate within Camden and Haringey

Hampstead and Highgate crosses council boundaries: Camden (89%), Haringey (11%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Camden
66 LSOAs
89%View projection ›
Haringey
8 LSOAs
11%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BelsizeLabour 37.6%vs Conservative 21.4%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.8%vs Conservative 29.2%
Labour→Lib Dem
+20.3pp
39.2%
Fortune GreenLabour 47.6%vs Lib Dem 17.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 39.2%vs Green 21.5%
Labour→Lib Dem
+24.3pp
37.5%
FrognalLabour 40.9%vs Conservative 29.5%May 2026 Conservative 45.4%vs Green 16.2%
Labour→Conservative
+20.4pp
39.1%
Gospel OakLabour 55.6%vs Green 13.8%May 2026 Green 34.6%vs Labour 34.2%
Labour→Green
+21.1pp
39.2%
Hampstead TownLabour 43.6%vs Conservative 23.6%May 2026 Lib Dem 37.7%vs Conservative 32.5%
Labour→Lib Dem
+27.6pp
48.1%
HighgateLabour 48.9%vs Lib Dem 17.3%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.6%vs Green 26.1%
Labour→Lib Dem
+22.5pp
50.7%
HighgateLabour 53.6%vs Green 16.7%May 2026 Labour 40.1%vs Green 40.0%
Labour share
-13.5pp
52.6%
KilburnLabour 52.8%vs Green 14.4%May 2026 Green 36.1%vs Labour 34.7%
Labour→Green
+19.8pp
30.4%
Primrose HillLabour 41.0%vs Others 25.4%May 2026 Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 27.0%
Labour share
-7.1pp
39.1%
South HampsteadLabour 49.9%vs Conservative 17.8%May 2026 Labour 29.2%vs Lib Dem 22.4%
Labour share
-20.6pp
39.5%
West HampsteadLabour 48.0%vs Lib Dem 14.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 41.2%vs Labour 22.6%
Labour→Lib Dem
+25.9pp
36.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Hampstead and Highgate at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Hampstead and Highgate at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdGlenda Jackson Hampstead and Kilburn MP32.8%32.7%31.2%0.8% UKIP1.4%1.0%4265.7%
2015predecessorLab holdTulip Siddiq Hampstead and Kilburn MP44.4%42.3%5.6%2.8% UKIP4.4%0.4%1,13867.3%+1.6
2017predecessorLab holdTulip Siddiq Hampstead and Kilburn MP59.0%32.4%7.0%-1.3%0.3%15,56070.4%+3.1
2019notionalLabour winnerTulip Siddiq Hampstead and Kilburn MP, pre-review boundary47.6%23.2%24.3%-3.7%1.2%13,40077.3%
2024Lab holdTulip Siddiq48.3%17.4%12.7%6.1% Ref13.7%1.9%14,97060.7%-16.6

Hampstead and Highgate was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Hampstead and Kilburn (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Hampstead and Highgate

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hampstead and Highgate. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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