Kensington and Bayswater
London · Borough constituency
About the Kensington and Bayswater constituency
Kensington and Bayswater is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Joe Powell (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 40.6% to 33.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,903 votes on a 54.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 33.1% and Labour on 32.1%, a margin of 0.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Kensington and Bayswater? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Kensington and Bayswater vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Kensington and Bayswater
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Kensington and Bayswater within Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster
Kensington and Bayswater crosses council boundaries: Kensington and Chelsea (83%), Westminster (17%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Kensington and Chelsea | 83% | View projection › |
| Westminster | 17% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abingdon | Conservative 41.7%vs Labour 31.2% | May 2026 Conservative 66.8%vs Lib Dem 11.1% | Conservative share +25.1pp | 37.0% |
| Bayswater | Labour 47.0%vs Conservative 26.8% | May 2026 Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 35.1% | Labour→Conservative +11.0pp | 35.7% |
| Brompton & Hans Town | Conservative 46.0%vs Labour 28.0% | May 2026 Conservative 68.6%vs Labour 11.1% | Conservative share +22.6pp | - |
| Campden | Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 31.1% | May 2026 Conservative 66.8%vs Lib Dem 13.8% | Conservative share +23.4pp | - |
| Colville | Labour 48.1%vs Conservative 26.3% | May 2026 Labour 37.6%vs Green 24.6% | Labour share -10.6pp | 34.1% |
| Courtfield | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 30.7% | May 2026 Conservative 72.8%vs Lib Dem 9.4% | Conservative share +32.3pp | 33.9% |
| Dalgarno | Labour 52.0%vs Conservative 24.7% | May 2026 Labour 36.9%vs Green 24.8% | Labour share -15.1pp | 37.0% |
| Earl's Court | Labour 37.4%vs Conservative 33.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.7%vs Conservative 35.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.0pp | 41.0% |
| Golborne | Labour 52.2%vs Conservative 22.1% | May 2026 Labour 41.5%vs Green 32.1% | Labour share -10.7pp | 28.9% |
| Holland | Labour 38.4%vs Conservative 36.7% | May 2026 Conservative 66.3%vs Labour 14.8% | Labour→Conservative +26.6pp | 41.0% |
| Lancaster Gate | Labour 45.9%vs Conservative 30.7% | May 2026 Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 34.2% | Labour share -8.4pp | 37.6% |
| Norland | Conservative 40.1%vs Labour 37.0% | May 2026 Conservative 62.1%vs Labour 15.2% | Conservative share +22.0pp | 42.9% |
| Notting Dale | Labour 53.1%vs Conservative 23.0% | May 2026 Labour 47.0%vs Green 17.4% | Labour share -6.1pp | 35.3% |
| Pembridge | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 36.3% | May 2026 Conservative 50.8%vs Lib Dem 33.9% | Labour→Conservative +20.6pp | 43.0% |
| Queen's Gate | Conservative 41.9%vs Labour 29.6% | May 2026 Conservative 68.9%vs Lib Dem 10.9% | Conservative share +26.9pp | 36.1% |
| St. Helen's | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 29.2% | May 2026 Labour 36.2%vs Conservative 33.6% | Labour share -11.2pp | 44.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Kensington and Bayswater at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Kensington and Bayswater at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | Malcolm Rifkind Kensington MP | 25.5% | 50.1% | 19.6% | 8,616 | 53.3% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Victoria Borwick Kensington MP | 31.1% | 52.3% | 5.6% | 7,361 | 57.0%+3.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Emma Dent Coad Kensington MP | 42.2% | 42.2% | 12.2% | 20 | 63.8%+6.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | — | 39.0% | 38.3% | 20.2% | 390 | 72.1% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Joe Powell | 40.6% | 33.7% | 6.9% | 2,903 | 54.2%-17.9 |
Kensington and Bayswater was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Kensington (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Kensington and Bayswater
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kensington and Bayswater. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied29.9 / 29.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate60.3 / 62.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave30.5 / 28.1vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate60.3 / 61.0vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied29.9 / 36.1vs 61.9
- ↓Leave30.5 / 29.1vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate60.3 / 64.7vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied29.9 / 37.5vs 61.9
- ↓Leave30.5 / 25.1vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied29.9 / 36.0vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate60.3 / 58.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave30.5 / 37.3vs 53.2
- ↓Leave30.5 / 29.1vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied29.9 / 38.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate60.3 / 54.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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