North Somerset
South West · County constituency · North Somerset borough
About the North Somerset constituency
North Somerset is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Sadik Al-Hassan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.6% to 34.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 639 votes on a 72.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 31.2% and Labour on 26.7%, a margin of 4.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North Somerset? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North Somerset vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North Somerset
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North Somerset within North Somerset
North Somerset sits entirely within North Somerset Council. North Somerset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Somerset | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | Clevedon South | Lab HOLD | Lab 29% Ref 28% Con 19% |
| 13 Nov 2025 | Long Ashton | Grn HOLD | Grn 56% Con 18% Ref 16% |
| 18 Nov 2023 | Wrington | Grn GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backwell | Labour 40.2%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2023 Green 64.3%vs Conservative 24.4% | - | 48.4% |
| Clevedon East | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2023 Independent 30.6%vs Conservative 28.5% | - | 34.2% |
| Clevedon South | Labour 44.0%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Labour 54.4%vs Conservative 45.6% | - | 33.0% |
| Clevedon Walton | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 29.7% | 2023 Conservative 34.4%vs Independent 26.0% | - | 48.1% |
| Clevedon West | Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Conservative 39.7%vs Lib Dem 24.9% | - | 42.8% |
| Clevedon Yeo | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 44.4%vs Labour 37.5% | - | 36.3% |
| Gordano Valley | Conservative 42.2%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Conservative 56.0%vs Lib Dem 44.0% | - | 42.8% |
| Long Ashton | Conservative 38.0%vs Labour 29.8% | 2023 Conservative 37.6%vs Lib Dem 28.7% | - | 66.3% |
| Nailsea Golden Valley | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 33.0% | 2023 Independent 75.3%vs Labour 13.1% | - | 41.6% |
| Nailsea West End | Labour 36.7%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2023 Conservative 53.5%vs Independent 26.9% | - | 39.3% |
| Nailsea Yeo | Conservative 37.2%vs Labour 33.5% | 2023 Independent 55.0%vs Conservative 24.9% | - | 31.2% |
| Nailsea Youngwood | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 35.0% | 2023 Labour 51.7%vs Conservative 48.3% | - | 38.9% |
| Pill | Labour 39.0%vs Conservative 31.7% | 2023 Green 48.6%vs Conservative 33.9% | - | 37.5% |
| Portishead East | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Others 37.0%vs Independent 24.0% | - | 44.4% |
| Portishead North | Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 32.3% | 2023 Others 49.7%vs Conservative 27.2% | - | 37.8% |
| Portishead South | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 31.5% | 2023 Conservative 33.8%vs Lib Dem 27.1% | - | 40.4% |
| Portishead West | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 33.0% | 2023 Conservative 35.3%vs Others 28.3% | - | 53.9% |
| Winford | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2023 Green 58.6%vs Conservative 41.4% | - | 32.5% |
| Wrington | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 33.8% | 2023 Independent 77.9%vs Conservative 22.1% | - | 36.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North Somerset at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North Somerset at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Liam Fox | 11.1% | 49.3% | 35.7% | 7,862 | 75.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Liam Fox | 14.3% | 53.5% | 12.7% | 23,099 | 73.5%-1.5 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Liam Fox | 26.6% | 54.2% | 9.6% | 17,103 | 77.0%+3.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Liam Fox 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.0% | 53.5% | 16.6% | 16,184 | 76.9%-0.1 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Sadik Al-Hassan | 35.6% | 34.4% | 13.2% | 639 | 72.2%-4.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North Somerset
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North Somerset. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 79.7vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.6 / 8.6vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+30.6 / 30.1vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 75.5vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 22.4vs 30.2
- ↓Social rent7.6 / 9.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 74.6vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.6 / 9.6vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 23.5vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 23.2vs 30.2
- ↑Graduate39.6 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied77.5 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.3 / 23.1vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent14.2 / 13.7vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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