York Outer
Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · York borough
About the York Outer constituency
York Outer is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Mr Luke Charters (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.3% to 26.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,391 votes on a 67.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.2% and the Conservatives on 25.6%, a margin of 10.6 points.
Who lives in York Outer? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did York Outer vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of York Outer
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
York Outer within York
York Outer sits entirely within York Council. York was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| York | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov 2024 | Haxby & Wigginton | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishopthorpe | Labour 37.7%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 34.4%vs Green 31.9% | - | 51.1% |
| Copmanthorpe | Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 32.2% | 2023 Conservative 29.1%vs Independent 26.8% | - | 43.5% |
| Dringhouses & Woodthorpe | Labour 51.0%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 57.9%vs Labour 23.7% | - | 42.5% |
| Fulford & Heslington | Labour 58.9%vs Conservative 17.8% | 2023 Labour 47.3%vs Lib Dem 35.8% | - | 44.4% |
| Haxby & Wigginton | Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 28.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 56.2%vs Conservative 22.6% | - | 40.8% |
| Heworth Without | Labour 46.9%vs Conservative 22.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 61.9%vs Labour 20.6% | - | 46.5% |
| Huntington & New Earswick | Labour 54.5%vs Conservative 19.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 45.3%vs Labour 34.3% | - | 35.9% |
| Osbaldwick & Derwent | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 25.4%vs Conservative 24.1% | - | 57.0% |
| Rawcliffe & Clifton Without | Labour 52.6%vs Conservative 20.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 55.6%vs Labour 27.7% | - | 38.9% |
| Rural West York | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 35.4% | 2023 Lib Dem 53.3%vs Conservative 30.1% | - | 49.9% |
| Strensall | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 35.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 33.5% | - | 34.1% |
| Wheldrake | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.2%vs Conservative 33.2% | - | 42.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for York Outer at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won York Outer at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from LD | Julian Sturdy | 17.1% | 43.0% | 36.1% | 3,688 | 70.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Julian Sturdy | 24.8% | 49.1% | 11.6% | 13,129 | 68.6%-1.6 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Julian Sturdy | 36.7% | 51.1% | 10.3% | 8,289 | 75.7%+7.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Julian Sturdy 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 29.9% | 49.6% | 18.7% | 10,782 | 75.3%-0.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Luke Charters | 45.3% | 26.9% | 10.8% | 9,391 | 67.0%-8.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like York Outer
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to York Outer. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent8.6 / 7.6vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 79.0vs 61.9
- ↓Leave44.7 / 44.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent10.8 / 11.6vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 82.0vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.8 / 10.3vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.7 / 44.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 75.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.8 / 12.4vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 29.3vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied79.7 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.8 / 12.5vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.7 / 46.2vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.