Constituency profile

Wirral West

North West · County constituency · Wirral borough

Matthew Patrick MP
Sitting MP

Matthew Patrick

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
County constituency, Wirral council
Last 5 GE winners
CLLLL
Labour 4/5, Conservative 1/5
EU referendum 2016
44.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -7.2pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +18.3pp
vs Conservative 22.4%
NorthernRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Wirral West constituency

Wirral West is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Matthew Patrick (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 46.4% to 26.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 9,998 votes on a 68.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 40.7% and the Conservatives on 22.4%, a margin of 18.3 points.

Who lives in Wirral West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
44.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
40.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
13.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
79.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
20.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
50.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
33.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
20.8%
UK average ~28%

How did Wirral West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 9,998 votes (20.1pp) · turnout 68.6%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Wirral West

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Wirral West within Wirral

Wirral West sits entirely within Wirral Council. Wirral was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Wirral
60 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
ClatterbridgeLabour 46.6%vs Conservative 26.2%2023 Conservative 44.6%vs Labour 35.7%-45.8%
Greasby, Frankby and IrbyLabour 46.8%vs Conservative 28.3%2023 Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 38.1%-53.9%
HeswallLabour 38.2%vs Conservative 29.9%2023 Conservative 46.2%vs Lib Dem 40.5%-49.2%
Hoylake and MeolsLabour 45.9%vs Conservative 26.8%2023 Conservative 48.0%vs Labour 35.2%-47.6%
Pensby and ThingwallLabour 50.1%vs Conservative 24.0%2023 Labour 46.5%vs Conservative 38.1%-48.0%
UptonLabour 57.6%vs Reform 15.5%2023 Labour 63.3%vs Conservative 18.1%-32.3%
West Kirby and ThurstastonLabour 44.1%vs Conservative 28.1%2023 Conservative 42.6%vs Labour 31.6%-45.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Wirral West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Wirral West at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdEsther McVey36.3%42.5%16.8%2.3% UKIP-2.1%2,43671.5%
2015Lab gain from ConMargaret Greenwood45.1%44.2%3.4%6.6% UKIP-0.7%41775.6%+4.1
2017Lab holdMargaret Greenwood54.3%42.1%2.6%-1.0%-5,36578.5%+2.9
2019notionalLabour winnerMargaret Greenwood 2019 MP, pre-review boundary45.2%44.4%5.7%-2.5%2.2%45577.7%-0.8
2024Lab holdMatthew Patrick46.4%26.3%6.1%12.9% Ref8.3%-9,99868.6%-9.1

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Wirral West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wirral West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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