Sefton Central
North West · County constituency · Sefton borough
About the Sefton Central constituency
Sefton Central is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Bill Esterson (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 56.4% to 17.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 18,282 votes on a 63.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 53.3% and Reform UK on 20.8%, a margin of 32.5 points.
Who lives in Sefton Central? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sefton Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sefton Central
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sefton Central within Sefton
Sefton Central sits entirely within Sefton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sefton | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ainsdale | Labour 49.5%vs Conservative 22.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.1%vs Reform 24.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +30.2pp | - |
| Blundellsands | Labour 59.4%vs Conservative 17.6% | May 2026 Labour 42.3%vs Reform 20.2% | Labour share -17.0pp | - |
| Harington | Labour 51.6%vs Conservative 24.3% | 2024 Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 27.7% | - | 36.4% |
| Manor | Labour 58.5%vs Conservative 16.1% | 2024 Labour 62.9%vs Conservative 18.2% | - | 29.1% |
| Molyneux | Labour 63.3%vs Reform 14.8% | 2024 Labour 75.0%vs Conservative 9.2% | - | 27.0% |
| Park | Labour 57.6%vs Conservative 15.3% | 2024 Labour 58.1%vs Others 23.0% | - | 28.9% |
| Ravenmeols | Labour 59.0%vs Conservative 16.3% | 2024 Labour 56.8%vs Others 23.9% | - | 31.6% |
| Sudell | Labour 57.3%vs Conservative 15.4% | 2024 Labour 58.9%vs Others 20.8% | - | 28.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sefton Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sefton Central at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Bill Esterson | 41.9% | 33.9% | 19.9% | 3,862 | 71.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Bill Esterson | 53.8% | 29.6% | 4.3% | 11,846 | 72.4%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Bill Esterson | 63.0% | 33.0% | 2.7% | 15,618 | 75.5%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Bill Esterson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 52.6% | 34.3% | 6.6% | 10,414 | 76.4%+0.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Bill Esterson | 56.4% | 17.9% | 5.5% | 18,282 | 63.9%-12.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Sefton Central
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sefton Central. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied82.0 / 79.7vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.3 / 10.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave44.1 / 44.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied82.0 / 79.0vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.6 / 33.3vs 22.7
- ↓Leave44.1 / 44.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied82.0 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.1 / 7.6vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied82.0 / 75.9vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent10.3 / 12.4vs 20.2
- ↑Age 65+32.6 / 29.3vs 22.7
- ↑Age 65+32.6 / 33.5vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied82.0 / 73.3vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 21.6vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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