North West Hampshire
South East · County constituency
About the North West Hampshire constituency
North West Hampshire is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Kit Malthouse (Conservative), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.0% to 28.5% for Labour, a majority of 3,288 votes on a 64.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 29.8% and the Conservatives on 29.6%, a margin of 0.2 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in North West Hampshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North West Hampshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North West Hampshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North West Hampshire within Test Valley and Basingstoke and Deane
North West Hampshire crosses council boundaries: Test Valley (52%), Basingstoke and Deane (48%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. In addition, the Hampshire County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Test Valley | 52% | — |
| Basingstoke and Deane | 48% | View projection › |
Hampshire County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andover North | Con | Con 36% Ref 29% Grn 15% | 0.0% |
| Andover South | Con | Con 31% Ref 29% LD 15% | 41.1% |
| Calleva | Con | Con 36% Ref 27% LD 23% | 45.1% |
| Candovers, Oakley & Overton | Con | Con 36% Ref 26% LD 18% | 49.8% |
| Tadley & Baughurst | LD | LD 33% Ref 30% Con 25% | 43.0% |
| Whitchurch & The Cleres | Con | Con 37% Ref 22% LD 19% | 47.8% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andover Downlands | Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 27.2% | 2023 Conservative 59.9%vs Lib Dem 27.8% | - | 22.2% |
| Andover Harroway | Conservative 31.2%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 42.7%vs Conservative 39.8% | - | 31.4% |
| Andover Millway | Labour 34.6%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Conservative 42.2%vs Lib Dem 33.4% | - | 37.7% |
| Andover Romans | Conservative 33.9%vs Labour 26.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Conservative 40.9% | - | 26.1% |
| Andover St Mary's | Conservative 31.2%vs Labour 30.5% | 2023 Conservative 45.3%vs Labour 23.9% | - | 31.9% |
| Andover Winton | Labour 33.6%vs Conservative 31.3% | 2023 Conservative 46.5%vs Lib Dem 28.7% | - | 27.7% |
| Bourne Valley | Conservative 37.5%vs Labour 29.3% | 2023 Conservative 64.4%vs Lib Dem 35.6% | - | 36.2% |
| Evingar | Conservative 43.6%vs Labour 23.3% | May 2026 Conservative 46.5%vs Reform 22.6% | Conservative share +2.8pp | 47.2% |
| Sherborne St John & Rooksdown | Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 34.0% | May 2026 Conservative 33.4%vs Reform 23.3% | Labour→Conservative +9.7pp | 37.7% |
| Tadley & Pamber | Conservative 37.3%vs Labour 25.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.3%vs Reform 30.1% | Conservative→Lib Dem +18.4pp | 45.0% |
| Tadley North, Kingsclere & Baughurst | Conservative 36.3%vs Labour 24.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.0%vs Reform 27.2% | Conservative→Lib Dem +14.3pp | 44.6% |
| Whitchurch, Overton & Laverstoke | Conservative 34.3%vs Labour 27.0% | May 2026 Others 58.0%vs Reform 17.0% | Conservative→Others +40.6pp | 49.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North West Hampshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North West Hampshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | George Young | 13.1% | 58.3% | 23.4% | 18,583 | 69.5% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Kit Malthouse | 13.3% | 58.1% | 9.3% | 23,943 | 69.7%+0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Kit Malthouse | 23.5% | 62.1% | 9.7% | 22,679 | 72.2%+2.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Kit Malthouse 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.9% | 60.1% | 18.5% | 21,507 | 68.0%-4.2 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Kit Malthouse | 28.5% | 35.0% | 15.0% | 3,288 | 64.6%-3.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North West Hampshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North West Hampshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed64.9 / 61.9vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 13.1vs 20.2
- ↑Employed64.9 / 61.2vs 57.3
- ↑Employed64.9 / 63.8vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 15.4vs 20.2
- ↑Employed64.9 / 66.5vs 57.3
- ↓Private rent14.4 / 15.9vs 20.2
- ↑Employed64.9 / 62.8vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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