North East Hertfordshire
East of England · County constituency
About the North East Hertfordshire constituency
North East Hertfordshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Chris Hinchliff (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.0% to 31.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,923 votes on a 67.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 28.0% and the Conservatives on 24.0%, a margin of 4.0 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in North East Hertfordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did North East Hertfordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of North East Hertfordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
North East Hertfordshire within North Hertfordshire and East Hertfordshire
North East Hertfordshire crosses council boundaries: North Hertfordshire (70%), East Hertfordshire (30%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| North Hertfordshire | 70% |
| East Hertfordshire | 30% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Braughing and Standon | Ref GAIN from Con | Ref 35% Con 31% Grn 20% |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Royston Palace | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbury | Conservative 32.9%vs Labour 28.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 51.4%vs Conservative 36.2% | - | - |
| Aston, Datchworth & Walkern | Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 35.5% | 2023 Conservative 57.6%vs Labour 17.9% | - | 38.0% |
| Baldock East | Labour 33.5%vs Conservative 31.2% | 2024 Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 33.1% | - | - |
| Braughing & Standon | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 33.6% | 2023 Conservative 52.4%vs Labour 31.1% | - | 28.0% |
| Buntingford | Conservative 37.0%vs Labour 28.0% | 2023 Green 46.0%vs Conservative 38.9% | - | 41.1% |
| Ermine | Conservative 38.9%vs Labour 24.2% | 2024 Conservative 45.0%vs Lib Dem 36.3% | - | - |
| Hertford Rural | Conservative 40.5%vs Labour 28.2% | 2023 Conservative 53.3%vs Green 19.7% | - | 34.0% |
| Letchworth Grange | Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2024 Labour 54.8%vs Conservative 21.4% | - | - |
| Letchworth South East | Labour 43.2%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2024 Labour 52.1%vs Conservative 28.1% | - | - |
| Letchworth South West | Labour 31.8%vs Conservative 31.5% | 2024 Lib Dem 45.0%vs Conservative 28.9% | - | - |
| Letchworth Wilbury | Labour 47.8%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2024 Labour 65.5%vs Conservative 20.7% | - | - |
| Little Hadham & The Pelhams | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Conservative 48.3%vs Lib Dem 26.0% | - | 36.0% |
| Royston Heath | Conservative 32.7%vs Labour 29.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 56.5%vs Conservative 24.1% | - | - |
| Royston Meridian | Conservative 34.1%vs Labour 28.2% | 2024 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Conservative 30.5% | - | - |
| Royston Palace | Labour 39.2%vs Conservative 25.3% | 2024 Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 26.1% | - | - |
| The Mundens | Conservative 39.6%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Conservative 59.7%vs Green 20.8% | - | 33.0% |
| Ware Rural | Conservative 36.9%vs Labour 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 46.5%vs Green 26.5% | - | 31.0% |
| Watton-at-Stone | Conservative 34.6%vs Labour 32.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 64.6%vs Conservative 30.5% | - | 53.1% |
| Weston & Sandon | Conservative 26.3%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | 2024 Lib Dem 78.3%vs Conservative 12.3% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for North East Hertfordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won North East Hertfordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Oliver Heald | 16.4% | 53.5% | 23.4% | 15,194 | 69.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Oliver Heald | 18.9% | 55.4% | 7.6% | 19,080 | 70.7%+0.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Oliver Heald | 28.3% | 58.6% | 7.7% | 16,835 | 73.2%+2.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Oliver Heald 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 23.7% | 56.6% | 15.5% | 18,189 | 72.0%-1.2 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Chris Hinchliff | 35.0% | 31.3% | 10.4% | 1,923 | 67.6%-4.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like North East Hertfordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to North East Hertfordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 13.9vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 25.7vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.6 / 70.2vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 25.6vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.6 / 68.2vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 16.6vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 14.4vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.6 / 65.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied66.6 / 67.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 16.4vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent13.1 / 13.6vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3525.7 / 24.8vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.6 / 69.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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