Orkney and Shetland
Scotland · County constituency
About the Orkney and Shetland constituency
Orkney and Shetland is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Alistair Carmichael (Liberal Democrat), MP since June 2001. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 55.1% to 17.3% for the SNP, a majority of 7,807 votes on a 60.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 38.8% and the SNP on 24.1%, a margin of 14.7 points.
Who lives in Orkney and Shetland? Constituency demographics
From Scotland's 2022 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Orkney and Shetland vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Orkney and Shetland
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Orkney and Shetland voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Orkney and Shetland crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries (approximate share of the seat's area in each): Shetland Islands (55%), Orkney Islands (39%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Approx. share of Orkney and Shetland's area | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shetland Islands | 55% | SNP 47.5% | Liberal Democrats 34.3% | Hannah Mary Goodlad |
| Orkney Islands | 39% | Liberal Democrats 70.2% | SNP 16.2% | Liam McArthur |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are approximate shares of the Westminster seat's land area, not of its electorate. They come from an area overlay of the post-2024 Westminster boundary on simplified Holyrood second-review boundaries (in force from 7 May 2026), so they do not always sum to 100% and small overlaps may be artefacts of the simplified boundaries.
Orkney and Shetland within Shetland Islands and Orkney Islands
Orkney and Shetland crosses council boundaries: Shetland Islands (51%), Orkney Islands (49%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Shetland Islands | 51% |
| Orkney Islands | 49% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2025 | Shetland North | Ind GAIN from Lab | Other 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council result per ward, from the most recent election with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
Scottish council wards elect several councillors each by STV, so for these wards the table shows first preferences, not seats: the party with the most first-preference votes and each other party's share. 2022 figures are from the official cast-vote records.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council first preferences | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerwick North | Lib Dem 53.6%vs SNP 30.0% | 2017 Independent 97.4%Conservative 2.6% | - | - |
| Lerwick South | Lib Dem 51.6%vs SNP 31.6% | 2022 Independent 100.0%all candidates Independent | - | - |
| North Isles | Lib Dem 50.9%vs SNP 31.6% | 2017 Independent 100.0%all candidates Independent | - | - |
| Shetland Central | Lib Dem 62.4%vs SNP 11.7% | 2022 Independent 91.2%Green 7.0%, Others 1.8% | - | - |
| Shetland North | Lib Dem 53.0%vs SNP 30.6% | 2017 Independent 96.0%Conservative 4.0% | - | - |
| Shetland South | Lib Dem 57.9%vs Green 13.8% | 2022 Independent 73.3%Green 14.9%, SNP 11.8% | - | - |
| Shetland West | Lib Dem 62.1%vs Green 11.1% | 2022 Independent 83.1%Green 9.1%, SNP 7.8% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Orkney and Shetland at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Orkney and Shetland at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | SNP | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 10.7% | 10.5% | 62.0% | 10.6% | 9,928 | 58.5% |
| 2015 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 7.1% | 8.9% | 41.4% | 37.8% | 817 | 65.8%+7.3 |
| 2017 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 11.4% | 8.7% | 48.6% | 29.0% | 4,563 | 68.1%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Liberal Democrat winner | Alistair Carmichael 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 6.7% | 9.9% | 44.8% | 34.0% | 2,507 | 66.5%-1.6 |
| 2024 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 7.2% | 2.8% | 55.1% | 17.3% | 7,807 | 60.4%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Orkney and Shetland
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Orkney and Shetland. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave40.3 / 41.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 45.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave40.3 / 37.9vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 7.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 7.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave40.3 / 35.4vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 46.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.3 / 36.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 9.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 42.0vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.3 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 13.0vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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