Orkney and Shetland
Scotland · County constituency · Orkney Islands borough
About the Orkney and Shetland constituency
Orkney and Shetland is a county constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of Orkney Islands. The sitting MP is Mr Alistair Carmichael (Liberal Democrat), first elected in June 2001.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Orkney and Shetland with 55.1% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 17.3%, a majority of 7,807 votes. Turnout was 60.4%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 47.7% and the SNP on 18.6% in Orkney and Shetland, a margin of 29.1 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Orkney and Shetland is a Remain-leaning area (an estimated 40.3% voted Leave in 2016). About 43.5% of residents hold a degree, 69.1% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 47 (2021 Census).
Across the most recent general elections on record here, the seat has been won by the Liberal Democrats each time.
Who lives in Orkney and Shetland? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Orkney and Shetland vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Orkney and Shetland
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Orkney and Shetland voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Orkney and Shetland crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Shetland Islands (55%), Orkney Islands (39%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Orkney and Shetland | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shetland Islands | 55% | SNP 47.5% | Liberal Democrats 34.3% | Hannah Mary Goodlad |
| Orkney Islands | 39% | Liberal Democrats 70.2% | SNP 16.2% | Liam McArthur |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Orkney and Shetland within Orkney Islands
The Westminster constituency of Orkney and Shetland sits entirely within Orkney Islands Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Orkney Islands was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Orkney Islands | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2025 | Shetland North | Ind GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Orkney and Shetland at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Orkney and Shetland at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 10.7% | 10.5% | 62.0% | 9,928 | 58.5% |
| 2015 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 7.1% | 8.9% | 41.4% | 817 | 65.8%+7.3 |
| 2017 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 11.4% | 8.7% | 48.6% | 4,563 | 68.1%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Liberal Democrat winner | Alistair Carmichael 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 6.7% | 9.9% | 44.8% | 2,507 | 66.5%-1.6 |
| 2024 | LD hold | Alistair Carmichael | 7.2% | 2.8% | 55.1% | 7,807 | 60.4%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Orkney and Shetland
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Orkney and Shetland. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave40.3 / 41.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 45.4vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave40.3 / 37.9vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 7.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 41.6vs 33.7
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 7.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave40.3 / 35.4vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 46.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.3 / 36.6vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 9.3vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 42.0vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate43.5 / 43.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave40.3 / 45.0vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent8.3 / 13.0vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.