Constituency profile

Southport

North West · County constituency

Patrick Hurley MP
Sitting MP

Patrick Hurley

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
LDLDCCL
Liberal Democrats 2/5, Conservative 2/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
46.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -5.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +3.9pp
vs Reform UK 27.2%
NorthernBrexit-marginal

About the Southport constituency

Southport is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Patrick Hurley (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 38.3% to 25.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 5,789 votes on a 61.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 31.1% and Reform UK on 27.2%, a margin of 3.9 points.

Who lives in Southport? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
46.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
31.2%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
68.6%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
48.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
29.6%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
23.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Southport vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 5,789 votes (12.9pp) · turnout 61.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Southport

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Southport within Sefton and West Lancashire

Southport crosses council boundaries: Sefton (83%), West Lancashire (17%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Sefton
54 LSOAs
83%View projection ›
West Lancashire
11 LSOAs
17%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BirkdaleLabour 42.5%vs Conservative 21.8%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.3%vs Reform 28.7%
Labour→Lib Dem
+20.2pp
-
Burscough Bridge & RuffordLabour 38.7%vs Conservative 30.5%May 2026 Reform 28.8%vs Others 26.4%
Labour→Reform
+18.1pp
49.0%
CambridgeLabour 32.6%vs Conservative 27.9%May 2026 Lib Dem 36.5%vs Reform 31.1%
Labour→Lib Dem
+22.9pp
-
Duke'sLabour 33.4%vs Conservative 26.1%May 2026 Lib Dem 36.7%vs Reform 24.2%
Labour→Lib Dem
+24.8pp
-
KewLabour 44.7%vs Conservative 20.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 37.5%vs Reform 32.1%
Labour→Lib Dem
+25.4pp
-
MeolsLabour 34.2%vs Conservative 25.4%May 2026 Lib Dem 45.2%vs Reform 30.2%
Labour→Lib Dem
+27.2pp
-
North Meols & Hesketh BankConservative 34.9%vs Labour 33.0%May 2026 Conservative 51.8%vs Reform 29.1%
Conservative share
+16.9pp
42.9%
NorwoodLabour 47.7%vs Conservative 19.0%May 2026 Reform 33.1%vs Green 27.8%
Labour→Reform
+22.9pp
-
Tarleton VillageConservative 35.3%vs Labour 33.0%May 2026 Conservative 45.6%vs Reform 32.3%
Conservative share
+10.3pp
47.1%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Southport at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Southport at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdJohn Pugh9.4%35.8%49.6%5.1% UKIP--6,02465.1%
2015LD holdJohn Pugh19.2%28.0%31.0%16.8% UKIP2.8%2.2%1,32265.5%+0.4
2017Con gain from LDDamien Moore32.6%38.7%26.4%2.4% UKIP--2,91469.1%+3.6
2019notionalConservative winnerDamien Moore 2019 MP, pre-review boundary36.8%50.4%12.5%-0.4%-6,77167.2%-1.9
2024Lab gain from ConPatrick Hurley38.3%25.4%13.0%16.4% Ref4.8%2.0%5,78961.2%-6.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Southport

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Southport. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.