Constituency profile

West Dorset

South West · County constituency · Dorset borough

Edward Morello MP
Sitting MP

Edward Morello

Liberal Democrat

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South West
County constituency, Dorset council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCLD
Conservative 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5
EU referendum 2016
51.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -0.9pp below mean
Current outlook
Liberal Democrats +7.8pp
vs Conservative 32.1%
SouthernBrexit-marginal

About the West Dorset constituency

West Dorset is a county constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Edward Morello (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 51.3% to 36.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,789 votes on a 69.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 39.9% and the Conservatives on 32.1%, a margin of 7.8 points.

Who lives in West Dorset? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
51.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
36.1%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
14.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
31.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
53.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
37.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
19.8%
UK average ~28%

How did West Dorset vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

LD gain from Con · majority 7,789 votes (14.8pp) · turnout 69.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of West Dorset

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

West Dorset within Dorset

West Dorset sits entirely within Dorset Council. Dorset was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Dorset
53 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
21 May 2026Bridport
Dorset
LD HOLDLD 44% Ref 23% Grn 20%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BeaminsterLib Dem 48.8%vs Conservative 43.5%2024 Conservative 42.9%vs Lib Dem 41.3%-40.3%
BridportLib Dem 52.1%vs Conservative 33.3%2024 Lib Dem 42.5%vs Green 30.9%-35.0%
Chalk ValleysLib Dem 44.5%vs Conservative 43.0%2024 Conservative 48.0%vs Lib Dem 38.9%-36.5%
Charminster St Mary'sLib Dem 56.0%vs Conservative 32.9%2024 Lib Dem 64.9%vs Conservative 35.1%-34.4%
Chesil BankLib Dem 50.2%vs Conservative 39.5%2024 Lib Dem 43.5%vs Conservative 29.8%-48.8%
Dorchester EastLib Dem 60.6%vs Conservative 26.1%2024 Lib Dem 47.5%vs Green 16.9%-45.2%
Dorchester PoundburyLib Dem 55.2%vs Conservative 35.7%2024 Lib Dem 54.0%vs Conservative 31.1%-40.9%
Dorchester WestLib Dem 56.7%vs Conservative 27.8%2024 Others 33.3%vs Lib Dem 33.0%-52.0%
EggardonLib Dem 47.8%vs Conservative 42.1%2024 Lib Dem 43.7%vs Conservative 38.5%-40.7%
Lyme & CharmouthLib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 42.2%2024 Green 61.0%vs Conservative 26.2%-35.7%
Marshwood ValeConservative 47.1%vs Lib Dem 41.3%2024 Conservative 39.8%vs Green 32.4%-41.2%
Sherborne EastLib Dem 52.4%vs Conservative 36.9%2024 Lib Dem 58.1%vs Conservative 34.8%-38.2%
Sherborne RuralLib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 36.4%2024 Lib Dem 60.3%vs Conservative 39.7%-37.7%
Sherborne WestLib Dem 51.1%vs Conservative 35.6%2024 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Conservative 36.0%-34.6%
Winterborne & BroadmayneLib Dem 53.8%vs Conservative 34.3%2024 Lib Dem 62.1%vs Conservative 26.1%-34.5%
YetminsterLib Dem 45.9%vs Conservative 43.5%2024 Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 44.1%-41.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for West Dorset at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won West Dorset at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdOliver Letwin6.7%47.6%40.7%3.8% UKIP1.2%-3,92374.6%
2015Con holdOliver Letwin10.0%50.2%21.6%12.5% UKIP5.7%-16,13072.4%-2.2
2017Con holdOliver Letwin18.3%55.5%23.5%-2.7%-19,09175.4%+3.0
2019notionalConservative winnerChris Loder 2019 MP, pre-review boundary9.4%54.3%32.8%-3.5%-12,38876.7%+1.3
2024LD gain from ConEdward Morello5.9%36.5%51.3%-4.3%1.9%7,78969.2%-7.5

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like West Dorset

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to West Dorset. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.