Birmingham Selly Oak
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough
About the Birmingham Selly Oak constituency
Birmingham Selly Oak is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Al Carns (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.2% to 15.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 11,537 votes on a 50.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.4% and Reform UK on 23.1%, a margin of 9.3 points.
Who lives in Birmingham Selly Oak? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Birmingham Selly Oak vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Birmingham Selly Oak
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Birmingham Selly Oak within Birmingham
Birmingham Selly Oak sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billesley | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 16.0% | May 2026 Green 44.5%vs Reform 23.7% | Labour→Green +31.3pp | - |
| Bournbrook & Selly Park | Labour 47.0%vs Reform 15.2% | May 2026 Green 65.2%vs Labour 17.8% | Labour→Green +41.1pp | - |
| Bournville & Cotteridge | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 16.3% | May 2026 Green 27.9%vs Labour 24.2% | Labour→Green +19.5pp | - |
| Brandwood & King's Heath | Others 48.4%vs Labour 24.6% | May 2026 Green 41.7%vs Labour 26.0% | Others→Green +41.7pp | - |
| Druids Heath & Monyhull | Labour 44.3%vs Reform 15.5% | May 2026 Green 64.2%vs Reform 24.7% | Labour→Green +45.7pp | - |
| Highter's Heath | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 16.8% | May 2026 Conservative 45.3%vs Reform 29.6% | Labour→Conservative +31.8pp | - |
| Stirchley | Labour 47.2%vs Reform 15.0% | May 2026 Green 39.4%vs Labour 34.7% | Labour→Green +20.3pp | - |
| Weoley & Selly Oak | Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 22.4% | May 2026 Reform 27.2%vs Conservative 25.4% | Labour→Reform +14.1pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Selly Oak at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Birmingham Selly Oak at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Stephen McCabe | 38.5% | 31.1% | 22.3% | 3,482 | 62.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Stephen McCabe | 47.7% | 29.0% | 5.6% | 8,447 | 60.3%-1.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Steve McCabe | 62.9% | 31.9% | 3.4% | 15,207 | 65.9%+5.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Stephen McCabe 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 55.7% | 31.6% | 6.2% | 11,645 | 63.4%-2.5 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Al Carns | 45.2% | 15.2% | 6.0% | 11,537 | 50.8%-12.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Birmingham Selly Oak
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Selly Oak. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3542.4 / 39.5vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.2 / 51.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+16.9 / 16.1vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3542.4 / 45.4vs 30.2
- ↓Employed48.1 / 49.7vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+16.9 / 16.1vs 22.7
- ↓Employed48.1 / 50.9vs 57.3
- ↓Owner-occupied54.2 / 56.5vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3542.4 / 34.6vs 30.2
- ↑Under 3542.4 / 51.4vs 30.2
- ↓Employed48.1 / 43.0vs 57.3
- ↓Owner-occupied54.2 / 46.6vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3542.4 / 34.8vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.2 / 58.2vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent21.7 / 19.0vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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