Dagenham and Rainham
London · Borough constituency
About the Dagenham and Rainham constituency
Dagenham and Rainham is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Margaret Mullane (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.6% to 24.2% for Reform UK, a majority of 7,173 votes on a 50.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 33.2% and Labour on 33.0%, a margin of 0.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Dagenham and Rainham? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Dagenham and Rainham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Dagenham and Rainham
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Dagenham and Rainham within Barking and Dagenham and Havering
Dagenham and Rainham crosses council boundaries: Barking and Dagenham (59%), Havering (41%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Barking and Dagenham | 59% | View projection › |
| Havering | 41% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibon | Labour 41.9%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Labour 43.0%vs Reform 39.3% | Labour share +1.1pp | - |
| Beam | Labour 43.6%vs Reform 23.0% | May 2026 Labour 48.8%vs Reform 26.5% | Labour share +5.2pp | - |
| Beam Park | Labour 58.2%vs Conservative 15.3% | May 2026 Labour 30.3%vs Reform 25.7% | Labour share -27.9pp | 32.6% |
| Chadwell Heath | Others 35.5%vs Labour 34.0% | May 2026 Labour 39.1%vs Reform 27.2% | Others→Labour +20.3pp | 86.9% |
| Eastbrook & Rush Green | Labour 40.4%vs Reform 23.8% | May 2026 Reform 38.5%vs Labour 30.3% | Labour→Reform +12.5pp | - |
| Elm Park | Labour 38.6%vs Reform 28.6% | May 2026 Others 39.8%vs Reform 34.4% | Labour→Others +35.0pp | - |
| Goresbrook | Labour 41.3%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Reform 42.0%vs Labour 28.6% | Labour→Reform +19.0pp | - |
| Heath | Labour 44.1%vs Reform 24.6% | May 2026 Labour 49.1%vs Reform 33.7% | Labour share +5.1pp | - |
| Parsloes | Labour 41.6%vs Reform 16.8% | May 2026 Reform 36.0%vs Labour 28.4% | Labour→Reform +16.2pp | - |
| Rainham & Wennington | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 26.6% | May 2026 Labour 35.0%vs Reform 29.3% | Labour share -2.1pp | - |
| South Hornchurch | Labour 41.0%vs Reform 26.8% | May 2026 Reform 40.1%vs Others 31.3% | Labour→Reform +21.1pp | - |
| Valence | Labour 42.5%vs Reform 21.6% | May 2026 Labour 39.5%vs Reform 37.9% | Labour share -2.9pp | - |
| Village | Labour 46.4%vs Reform 22.8% | May 2026 Labour 51.0%vs Reform 33.5% | Labour share +4.6pp | - |
| Whalebone | Labour 45.5%vs Reform 21.2% | May 2026 Labour 44.7%vs Reform 23.4% | Labour share -0.8pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Dagenham and Rainham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Dagenham and Rainham at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Jon Cruddas | 40.3% | 34.3% | 8.6% | 2,630 | 63.4% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Jon Cruddas | 41.4% | 24.4% | 1.7% | 4,980 | 62.3%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Jon Cruddas | 50.1% | 39.9% | 1.0% | 4,652 | 64.9%+2.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Jon Cruddas 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 44.7% | 43.1% | 3.0% | 706 | 59.7%-5.2 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Margaret Mullane | 42.6% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 7,173 | 50.8%-8.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Dagenham and Rainham
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Dagenham and Rainham. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.3 / 70.3vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+16.2 / 14.2vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3534.2 / 34.6vs 30.2
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 25.0vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+16.2 / 17.5vs 22.7
- ↑No quals23.0 / 26.4vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.3 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 23.8vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied56.8 / 57.1vs 61.9
- ↑Social rent22.6 / 22.6vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+16.2 / 17.4vs 22.7
- ↑No quals23.0 / 24.3vs 18.0
- ↑Leave70.3 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.0 / 22.0vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied56.8 / 59.2vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.