Thurrock
East of England · Borough constituency · Thurrock borough
About the Thurrock constituency
Thurrock is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Jen Craft (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.7% to 25.5% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,474 votes on a 51.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 46.9% and Labour on 30.3%, a margin of 16.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Thurrock? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Thurrock vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Thurrock
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Thurrock within Thurrock
Thurrock sits entirely within Thurrock Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Thurrock | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveley and Uplands | Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2024 Labour 63.1%vs Conservative 36.9% | - | 25.7% |
| Belhus | Labour 43.5%vs Reform 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 57.1%vs Labour 22.1% | Labour→Reform +26.3pp | - |
| Chafford and North Stifford | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2024 Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 34.3% | - | 31.1% |
| Grays Riverside | Labour 46.5%vs Reform 26.8% | May 2026 Reform 34.3%vs Green 29.0% | Labour→Reform +13.7pp | - |
| Grays Thurrock | Labour 48.5%vs Reform 22.6% | 2024 Labour 77.8%vs Conservative 22.2% | - | 27.3% |
| Little Thurrock Blackshots | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Reform 51.6%vs Conservative 22.6% | Labour→Reform +23.2pp | - |
| Little Thurrock Rectory | Labour 37.9%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 51.8%vs Labour 23.0% | Labour→Reform +21.5pp | - |
| Ockendon | Labour 39.8%vs Reform 27.5% | May 2026 Reform 55.0%vs Labour 19.7% | Labour→Reform +23.8pp | - |
| South Chafford | Labour 45.7%vs Reform 23.8% | 2024 Labour 56.4%vs Conservative 32.0% | - | 26.2% |
| Stifford Clays | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2023 Labour 40.9%vs Conservative 31.9% | - | 29.8% |
| Tilbury Riverside and Thurrock Park | Labour 43.3%vs Reform 29.7% | 2023 Labour 45.0%vs Independent 41.7% | - | 22.4% |
| Tilbury St Chads | Labour 46.8%vs Reform 27.0% | May 2026 Reform 54.6%vs Labour 31.4% | Labour→Reform +21.5pp | - |
| West Thurrock and South Stifford | Labour 44.5%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Conservative 39.1%vs Reform 29.2% | Labour→Conservative +21.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Thurrock at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Thurrock at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Jackie Doyle-Price | 36.6% | 36.8% | 10.7% | 92 | 58.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jackie Doyle-Price | 32.6% | 33.7% | 1.3% | 536 | 63.9%+5.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jackie Doyle-Price | 38.8% | 39.5% | 1.6% | 345 | 64.4%+0.5 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jacqueline Doyle-Price 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 32.9% | 59.9% | 3.1% | 11,962 | 60.5%-3.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jen Craft | 42.7% | 21.3% | 3.1% | 6,474 | 51.2%-9.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Thurrock
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Thurrock. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave70.3 / 64.0vs 53.2
- ↑Employed64.8 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 16.8vs 22.7
- ↑Leave70.3 / 65.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 26.7vs 33.7
- ↑Leave70.3 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 30.9vs 33.7
- ↑Employed64.8 / 60.6vs 57.3
- ↑Leave70.3 / 70.3vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 16.2vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3534.6 / 34.2vs 30.2
- ↑Leave70.3 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.8 / 27.7vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 17.5vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.