Filton and Bradley Stoke
South West · Borough constituency · South Gloucestershire borough
About the Filton and Bradley Stoke constituency
Filton and Bradley Stoke is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Claire Hazelgrove (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.5% to 25.6% for the Conservatives, a majority of 10,000 votes on a 64.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.1% and Reform UK on 26.9%, a margin of 9.2 points.
Who lives in Filton and Bradley Stoke? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Filton and Bradley Stoke vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Filton and Bradley Stoke
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Filton and Bradley Stoke within South Gloucestershire
Filton and Bradley Stoke sits entirely within South Gloucestershire Council. South Gloucestershire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| South Gloucestershire | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Stoke North | Labour 44.4%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 38.6%vs Labour 28.9% | - | 39.1% |
| Bradley Stoke South | Labour 45.5%vs Conservative 23.3% | 2023 Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 42.4% | - | 31.7% |
| Charlton & Cribbs | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 41.6%vs Labour 35.9% | - | 29.4% |
| Emersons Green | Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 23.0% | 2023 Labour 43.0%vs Conservative 39.0% | - | 36.6% |
| Filton | Labour 53.6%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 21.1% | - | 32.0% |
| Frenchay & Downend | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 30.1% | 2023 Lib Dem 39.2%vs Conservative 38.6% | - | 43.4% |
| Patchway Coniston | Labour 50.7%vs Conservative 20.9% | 2023 Independent 35.3%vs Labour 34.8% | - | 24.3% |
| Stoke Gifford | Labour 45.1%vs Conservative 26.8% | 2023 Labour 38.6%vs Conservative 38.5% | - | 36.7% |
| Stoke Park & Cheswick | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 21.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 46.8%vs Labour 31.9% | - | 31.7% |
| Winterbourne | Labour 38.8%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Conservative 42.8%vs Lib Dem 31.3% | - | 38.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Filton and Bradley Stoke at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Filton and Bradley Stoke at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Jack Lopresti | 26.4% | 40.8% | 25.3% | 6,914 | 70.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Jack Lopresti | 26.6% | 46.7% | 7.3% | 9,838 | 68.9%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Jack Lopresti | 41.7% | 50.0% | 6.0% | 4,190 | 70.0%+1.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jack Lopresti 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 35.8% | 51.0% | 10.0% | 7,842 | 70.0%+0.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Claire Hazelgrove | 45.5% | 25.6% | 7.1% | 10,000 | 64.9%-5.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Filton and Bradley Stoke
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Filton and Bradley Stoke. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed64.2 / 63.0vs 57.3
- ↓No quals11.9 / 14.4vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied68.0 / 65.3vs 61.9
- ↑Employed64.2 / 64.2vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.0 / 67.8vs 61.9
- ↓No quals11.9 / 13.4vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied68.0 / 68.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 11.8vs 16.8
- ↓No quals11.9 / 14.1vs 18.0
- ↑Employed64.2 / 61.8vs 57.3
- ↓Leave48.8 / 49.7vs 53.2
- ↓No quals11.9 / 15.3vs 18.0
- ↑Employed64.2 / 65.3vs 57.3
- ↑Owner-occupied68.0 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 11.3vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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