Luton South and South Bedfordshire
East of England · County constituency
About the Luton South and South Bedfordshire constituency
Luton South and South Bedfordshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Rachel Hopkins (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.4% to 22.1% for other parties, a majority of 6,858 votes on a 49.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 26.6% and Reform UK on 22.0%, a margin of 4.6 points.
Who lives in Luton South and South Bedfordshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Luton South and South Bedfordshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Luton South and South Bedfordshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Luton South and South Bedfordshire within Luton and Central Bedfordshire
Luton South and South Bedfordshire crosses council boundaries: Luton (87%), Central Bedfordshire (13%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Luton | 87% |
| Central Bedfordshire | 13% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2026 | Wigmore | Ref GAIN from LD | Ref 33% LD 30% Grn 20% |
| 4 Sep 2025 | Stopsley | LD HOLD | LD 41% Ref 36% Lab 11% |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Wigmore | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beech Hill | Others 40.8%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Labour 70.2%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | - | 34.9% |
| Biscot | Labour 38.4%vs Others 25.3% | 2023 Labour 44.7%vs Independent 32.5% | - | 33.6% |
| Caddington | Labour 34.7%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Independent 38.6%vs Conservative 33.2% | - | 31.0% |
| Central | Labour 37.0%vs Others 19.7% | 2023 Labour 68.0%vs Independent 17.3% | - | 15.9% |
| Dallow | Labour 37.5%vs Others 23.6% | 2023 Labour 66.0%vs Lib Dem 34.0% | - | 31.0% |
| Eaton Bray | Labour 34.1%vs Conservative 22.3% | 2023 Conservative 63.3%vs Green 19.1% | - | 32.8% |
| Farley | Labour 36.4%vs Others 21.7% | 2019 Labour 83.4%vs Conservative 16.6% | - | 21.7% |
| High Town | Labour 37.6%vs Others 18.7% | 2023 Labour 62.0%vs Independent 29.0% | - | 23.7% |
| Round Green | Labour 37.2%vs Conservative 18.2% | 2023 Lib Dem 49.2%vs Labour 42.2% | - | 28.8% |
| South | Labour 37.2%vs Conservative 18.5% | 2023 Lib Dem 51.5%vs Labour 48.5% | - | 22.5% |
| Stopsley | Others 54.1%vs Labour 19.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 78.0%vs Labour 21.9% | - | 30.7% |
| Vauxhall | Labour 35.6%vs Others 18.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 68.5%vs Labour 31.5% | - | 25.6% |
| Wigmore | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 19.3% | 2023 Lib Dem 83.4%vs Labour 16.6% | - | 31.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Luton South and South Bedfordshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Luton South and South Bedfordshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Gavin Shuker Luton South MP | 34.9% | 29.4% | 22.7% | 2,329 | 64.7% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Gavin Shuker Luton South MP | 44.2% | 30.7% | 7.5% | 5,711 | 62.3%-2.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Gavin Shuker Luton South MP | 62.4% | 32.3% | 2.3% | 13,925 | 68.7%+6.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Rachel Hopkins Luton South MP, pre-review boundary | 48.7% | 35.2% | 0.5% | 6,066 | 64.2% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Rachel Hopkins | 35.4% | 17.5% | 6.3% | 6,858 | 49.6%-14.6 |
Luton South and South Bedfordshire was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Luton South (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Luton South and South Bedfordshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Luton South and South Bedfordshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 49.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 15.4vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 52.2vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3538.5 / 35.8vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 17.1vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 54.1vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 17.1vs 22.7
- ↑No quals23.1 / 28.4vs 18.0
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 16.4vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3538.5 / 35.5vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 24.2vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 49.5vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 16.2vs 22.7
- ↑No quals23.1 / 24.5vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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