Newcastle upon Tyne North
North East · Borough constituency
About the Newcastle upon Tyne North constituency
Newcastle upon Tyne North is a borough constituency in the North East. The sitting MP is Catherine McKinnell (Labour), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 50.3% to 13.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 17,762 votes on a 65.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.5% and Reform UK on 18.0%, a margin of 20.5 points.
Who lives in Newcastle upon Tyne North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Newcastle upon Tyne North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Newcastle upon Tyne North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Newcastle upon Tyne North within Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside
Newcastle upon Tyne North crosses council boundaries: Newcastle upon Tyne (79%), North Tyneside (21%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle upon Tyne | 79% | View projection › |
| North Tyneside | 21% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camperdown | Labour 51.7%vs Reform 23.3% | May 2026 Reform 40.8%vs Labour 33.0% | Labour→Reform +18.1pp | - |
| Castle | Labour 48.3%vs Reform 15.8% | May 2026 Green 34.4%vs Lib Dem 33.4% | Labour→Green +33.2pp | 43.6% |
| Dene & South Gosforth | Labour 51.5%vs Lib Dem 16.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.0%vs Green 24.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +33.6pp | 58.6% |
| Fawdon & West Gosforth | Labour 47.2%vs Lib Dem 15.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.8%vs Reform 20.2% | Labour→Lib Dem +33.8pp | 47.8% |
| Gosforth | Labour 42.7%vs Conservative 21.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.1%vs Conservative 26.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.1pp | 60.0% |
| Kenton | Labour 55.1%vs Reform 13.4% | May 2026 Labour 34.1%vs Reform 32.4% | Labour share -21.1pp | 41.5% |
| Kingston Park South & Newbiggin Hall | Labour 40.9%vs Others 20.8% | 2024 Labour 65.0%vs Conservative 16.4% | - | - |
| Longbenton & Benton | Labour 54.4%vs Conservative 14.1% | May 2026 Labour 36.0%vs Reform 31.3% | Labour share -18.4pp | - |
| North Jesmond | Labour 50.9%vs Lib Dem 13.4% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.1%vs Labour 33.0% | - | - |
| Parklands | Labour 44.4%vs Lib Dem 15.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.2%vs Green 17.1%now part of Parklands North Gosforth | Labour→Lib Dem +36.0pp | 54.5% |
| South Jesmond | Labour 54.1%vs Reform 13.1% | 2024 Labour 42.1%vs Lib Dem 25.6% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Newcastle upon Tyne North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Newcastle upon Tyne North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Catherine McKinnell | 40.8% | 18.1% | 33.1% | 3,414 | 65.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Catherine McKinnell | 46.1% | 23.5% | 9.7% | 10,153 | 66.1%+0.6 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Catherine McKinnell | 55.4% | 33.9% | 5.2% | 10,349 | 73.1%+7.0 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Catherine McKinnell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 44.4% | 31.8% | 14.0% | 6,823 | 70.8%-2.3 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Catherine McKinnell | 50.3% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 17,762 | 65.0%-5.8 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Newcastle upon Tyne North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Newcastle upon Tyne North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3537.2 / 39.5vs 30.2
- ↓No quals12.5 / 14.3vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate44.1 / 39.2vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.5 / 14.6vs 18.0
- ↑Under 3537.2 / 34.8vs 30.2
- ↑Under 3537.2 / 32.6vs 30.2
- ↑Under 3537.2 / 36.0vs 30.2
- ↓No quals12.5 / 14.9vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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