Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
London · Borough constituency
About the Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner constituency
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is David Simmonds (Conservative), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 45.4% to 29.3% for Labour, a majority of 7,581 votes on a 65.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 43.3% and Labour on 21.1%, a margin of 22.2 points.
Who lives in Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner within Hillingdon and Harrow
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner crosses council boundaries: Hillingdon (63%), Harrow (37%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hillingdon | 63% | View projection › |
| Harrow | 37% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastcote | Conservative 46.2%vs Labour 28.5% | May 2026 Conservative 56.9%vs Reform 15.4% | Conservative share +10.7pp | 50.2% |
| Harefield Village | Conservative 45.2%vs Labour 22.1% | May 2026 Conservative 45.4%vs Reform 37.8% | Conservative share +0.1pp | 53.3% |
| Hatch End | Conservative 49.8%vs Labour 28.4% | May 2026 Conservative 62.8%vs Labour 17.6% | Conservative share +13.1pp | - |
| Northwood | Conservative 44.2%vs Labour 27.9% | May 2026 Conservative 59.6%vs Reform 11.8% | Conservative share +15.5pp | 43.5% |
| Northwood Hills | Conservative 43.2%vs Labour 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 52.3%vs Green 16.6% | Conservative share +9.1pp | 46.4% |
| Pinner | Conservative 41.5%vs Labour 31.7% | May 2026 Conservative 50.3%vs Labour 15.9% | Conservative share +8.8pp | - |
| Pinner South | Conservative 45.6%vs Labour 32.9% | May 2026 Conservative 51.5%vs Labour 18.0% | Conservative share +5.9pp | - |
| Ruislip | Conservative 46.8%vs Labour 27.2% | May 2026 Conservative 59.2%vs Reform 19.4% | Conservative share +12.4pp | 52.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Nick Hurd | 19.5% | 57.5% | 16.6% | 19,060 | 70.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Nick Hurd | 20.1% | 59.6% | 5.0% | 20,224 | 70.0%-0.8 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Nick Hurd | 31.0% | 57.2% | 7.1% | 13,980 | 72.7%+2.7 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Simmonds 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.1% | 55.3% | 15.2% | 15,810 | 72.4%-0.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | David Simmonds | 29.3% | 45.4% | 9.2% | 7,581 | 65.7%-6.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate48.9 / 46.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 68.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 9.6vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate48.9 / 48.5vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 11.4vs 16.8
- ↓No quals13.0 / 14.3vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate48.9 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 9.1vs 16.8
- ↓No quals13.0 / 14.2vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate48.9 / 48.2vs 33.7
- ↓No quals13.0 / 14.8vs 18.0
- ↑Owner-occupied69.0 / 64.7vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate48.9 / 38.3vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent10.6 / 14.7vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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