South Cambridgeshire
East of England · County constituency
About the South Cambridgeshire constituency
South Cambridgeshire is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Pippa Heylings (Liberal Democrat), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won with 46.8% to 27.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 10,641 votes on a 71.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Liberal Democrats on 51.7% and Reform UK on 18.6%, a margin of 33.2 points.
Who lives in South Cambridgeshire? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did South Cambridgeshire vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of South Cambridgeshire
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
South Cambridgeshire within South Cambridgeshire and Cambridge
South Cambridgeshire crosses council boundaries: South Cambridgeshire (82%), Cambridge (18%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| South Cambridgeshire | 82% | View projection › |
| Cambridge | 18% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balsham | Lib Dem 50.8%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 42.3%vs Conservative 23.5% | Lib Dem share -8.6pp | 50.3% |
| Barrington | Lib Dem 48.7%vs Conservative 29.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.0%vs Reform 22.6% | Lib Dem share -5.7pp | 50.7% |
| Bassingbourn | Lib Dem 44.4%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.8%vs Reform 26.8% | Lib Dem share +0.4pp | 44.4% |
| Cherry Hinton | Lib Dem 36.1%vs Conservative 25.5% | May 2026 Labour 30.9%vs Green 26.2% | Lib Dem→Labour +16.0pp | - |
| Duxford | Lib Dem 51.6%vs Conservative 22.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.7%vs Reform 19.8% | Lib Dem share -1.9pp | - |
| Fen Ditton & Fulbourn | Lib Dem 44.7%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 35.6%vs Green 17.9% | Lib Dem share -9.2pp | - |
| Foxton | Lib Dem 42.2%vs Conservative 32.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.3%vs Reform 22.2% | Lib Dem share +6.1pp | - |
| Gamlingay | Lib Dem 46.5%vs Conservative 30.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.4%vs Reform 32.2% | Lib Dem share +6.8pp | - |
| Hardwick | Lib Dem 39.9%vs Conservative 35.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.6%vs Conservative 27.1% | Lib Dem share +1.7pp | - |
| Harston & Comberton | Lib Dem 49.1%vs Conservative 29.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.2%vs Conservative 18.4% | Lib Dem share -5.9pp | - |
| Linton | Lib Dem 50.4%vs Conservative 28.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.2%vs Reform 20.4% | Lib Dem share -1.2pp | - |
| Melbourn | Lib Dem 51.2%vs Conservative 26.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.0%vs Reform 24.7% | Lib Dem share -1.2pp | - |
| Queen Edith's | Lib Dem 47.7%vs Conservative 20.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.0%vs Green 18.1% | Lib Dem share +1.3pp | - |
| Sawston | Lib Dem 51.7%vs Conservative 23.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 46.0%vs Reform 21.2% | Lib Dem share -5.8pp | - |
| Shelford | Lib Dem 48.1%vs Conservative 26.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.6%vs Green 34.0% | Lib Dem share -10.5pp | - |
| The Mordens | Lib Dem 45.3%vs Conservative 32.8% | May 2026 Conservative 60.2%vs Lib Dem 17.7% | Lib Dem→Conservative +27.5pp | - |
| Whittlesford | Lib Dem 38.6%vs Conservative 37.1% | May 2026 Conservative 52.6%vs Lib Dem 21.3% | Lib Dem→Conservative +16.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for South Cambridgeshire at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won South Cambridgeshire at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Andrew Lansley | 10.2% | 47.4% | 34.1% | 7,838 | 74.8% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Heidi Allen | 17.6% | 51.1% | 15.2% | 20,594 | 73.1%-1.7 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Heidi Allen | 27.2% | 51.8% | 18.6% | 15,952 | 76.2%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Anthony Browne 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.1% | 43.5% | 41.0% | 1,498 | 79.6%+3.4 |
| 2024 | LD gain from Con | Pippa Heylings | 11.1% | 27.4% | 46.8% | 10,641 | 71.0%-8.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like South Cambridgeshire
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to South Cambridgeshire. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave38.5 / 39.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate49.0 / 46.5vs 33.7
- ↓No quals12.2 / 10.7vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate49.0 / 51.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.5 / 41.6vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.2 / 10.9vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate49.0 / 51.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.5 / 37.8vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.2 / 11.0vs 18.0
- ↑Graduate49.0 / 46.9vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.5 / 40.7vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent14.6 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate49.0 / 51.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave38.5 / 35.9vs 53.2
- ↓No quals12.2 / 12.8vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.