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Rated by winning margin: more than 10 points Solid, 5 to 10 Likely, under 5 Lean.
35 races; 65 seats not up count as held. Ratings from our Senate averages, November 3, 2026. Last result uses the winner's margin, same bands as President.
2024 president margin: more than 10 points Solid, 5 to 10 Likely, 2 to 5 Lean, under 2 Toss-up. Current members: Solid for the sitting party; vacant seats and redrawn states (2026 lines) start blank.
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A tap moves one step through the ratings, then back to blank; press and hold opens them without changing anything. Paint sets many at once. Keys 1 to 7 set Solid D to Solid R, 0 clears, Ctrl+Z undoes.
President. 538 electoral votes on the 2020-census allocation, 270 to win. Maine and Nebraska districts are set separately. A 269-269 tie goes to the House.
Senate. 65 seats not up count as held, including King and Sanders (independents with the Democrats). Republicans control at 50 with Vice President Vance's tie-break; Democrats need 51. Where no Democrat runs, D stands for the independent.
House. 218 to win. 9 states redrawn for 2026 (Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, Utah); a rating stays with its seat number when you switch lines. 2024 president margins are PollCheck calculations from precinct returns (method).
Sources
President: electoral votes and results from Wikipedia, 2024 and 2020 United States presidential election (CC BY-SA 4.0). State boundaries: us-atlas 3.0.1 (ISC licence), from US Census Bureau cartographic boundary files.
Senate: seats, ratings and last results from the PollCheck 2026 midterms data (race list: Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate elections, CC BY-SA 4.0).
House: members from unitedstates/congress-legislators (CC0, retrieved November 5, 2026); district lines from US Census Bureau TIGER/Line 2026 and 2025 cartographic boundary files (public domain); hex layout PollCheck's own. Presidential results: PollCheck calculation from MIT Election Data and Science Lab 2024 precinct returns (doi:10.7910/DVN/XDJYKC, doi:10.7910/DVN/USBYR4, CC0; state totals doi:10.7910/DVN/42MVDX, CC0) and Voting and Election Science Team 2016 and 2020 precinct results and shapes (doi:10.7910/DVN/NH5S2I, doi:10.7910/DVN/K7760H, CC BY 4.0), with US Census Bureau 2020 block populations and block equivalency files (public domain). Official figures: Texas Legislative Council (2024 on the 2026 lines); Louisiana, New Jersey, California and Washington election offices (county totals). Certified results transcribed by Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0): Maine 2024 by district: 2024 United States presidential election in Maine (revision 1382530995); Indiana county totals: 2024 United States presidential election in Indiana (revision 1382505975); Oregon county totals: 2024 United States presidential election in Oregon (revision 1382605746).
PollCheck US. Data through November 5, 2026. Photo credits