US midterms 2026
US midterms 2026: results
Senate
51 for control54Democrats
44Republicans
D not up 34
D DDHQ and civicAPI calls 20
Counting 2
R DDHQ and civicAPI calls 13
R not up 31
Control: Democrats (DDHQ and civicAPI calls). DDHQ and civicAPI calls plus seats not up; Democrats include King and Sanders. DDHQ 22, civicAPI 11.
House
218 for control254Democrats
155Republicans
D DDHQ, civicAPI and PollCheck calls 254
Not called 26
R DDHQ, civicAPI and PollCheck calls 155
Control: Democrats (DDHQ, civicAPI and PollCheck calls). DDHQ, civicAPI and PollCheck calls, 409 of 435 seats. DDHQ 57, civicAPI 347, PollCheck 5.
Key Senate races
Iowa
Turek (D)50.5%
Hinson (R)46.3%
96% counted
DDHQ projects Josh Turek (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Turek +0.6
Alaska
Peltola (D)48.2%
Sullivan (R)47.9%
first choices; ranked-choice count if no one passes 50%
Final polling average: Peltola +1.8
Louisiana
Letlow (R)50.9%
Davis (D)49.1%
99% reporting
DDHQ projects Julia Letlow (R)
Final polling average: Davis +0.2
Maine
Jackson (D)53.5%
Collins (R)46.4%
91% reporting, first choices; ranked-choice count if no one passes 50%
DDHQ projects Troy Jackson (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Jackson +2.5
Ohio (special)
Brown (D)50.0%
Husted (R)45.1%
100% counted
DDHQ projects Sherrod Brown (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Brown +2.6
Kansas
Hamilton (D)51.0%
Marshall (R)46.0%
99% reporting
DDHQ projects Adam Hamilton (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Hamilton +3.0
Texas
Talarico (D)54.0%
Paxton (R)44.1%
99% reporting
DDHQ projects James Talarico (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Talarico +3.0
South Carolina
Andrews (D)51.1%
Graham (R)46.6%
99% reporting
DDHQ projects Annie Andrews (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Graham +1.1
Key governor races
Oregon
Kotek (D)51.9%
Drazan (R)45.3%
78% reporting
DDHQ projects Tina Kotek (D)
Final polling average: Kotek +1.0
Nevada
Ford (D)51.5%
Lombardo (R)44.3%
80% reporting
DDHQ projects Aaron Ford (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Ford +1.3
Georgia
Bottoms (D)54.3%
Jackson (R)45.7%
100% counted
DDHQ projects Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Jackson +0.2
Vermont
Scott (R)52.4%
Janoo (D)45.8%
99.6% counted
DDHQ projects Phil Scott (R)
Final polling average: Scott +0.8
Ohio
Acton (D)52.3%
Ramaswamy (R)44.4%
100% counted
DDHQ projects Amy Acton (D)
Democratic gain from Republicans
Final polling average: Acton +3.4
Wisconsin
Crowley (D)54.1%
Tiffany (R)45.9%
88% reporting
DDHQ projects David Crowley (D)
Final polling average: Crowley +4.5
Oklahoma
Mazzei (R)52.0%
Munson (D)45.9%
85% reporting
civicAPI winner: Mike Mazzei (R)
Final polling average: Mazzei +4.4
Senate map: DDHQ and civicAPI calls
Call DCall RCountingNot counting yetNo race
House map: DDHQ, civicAPI and PollCheck calls
409 of 435 called. Select a district for the count so far.
CallLeading, countingNo count yet
Final pre-election averages
Senate
35 Senate seats up, 51 needed for a majority
Final pre-election average
Pre-election chance of Senate control
| Democrats | Republicans | Neither | Democratic seats, 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 31% | 2% | 47 to 56 |
Democratic seats include King and Sanders. Neither: an independent holds the balance. Polling error data: FiveThirtyEight (CC BY 4.0).
Democrats need 51 for a majority: 2 of the 6 toss-ups. Republicans need 50: 5 of the 6 toss-ups.
Every Senate race
Senate polling averages by state
| State | PollCheck lean | Average | Candidates | Last result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Toss-upHinson 53% - 33 polls, 20 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Turek +0.6Turek -1.5 in 30 days | Ashley Hinson (R) 46.3% Josh Turek (D) 46.9% |
2020: Joni Ernst (R) 51.8%, Theresa Greenfield (D) 45.2% |
| Alaska | Toss-upPeltola 55% - 9 polls, 6 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Peltola +1.8Peltola -1.4 in 30 days | Dan S. Sullivan (R) 47.6% Mary Peltola (D) 49.4% |
2020: Dan Sullivan (R) 53.9%, Al Gross (I) 41.2% |
| Louisiana | Toss-upLetlow 54% - 4 polls, 3 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Davis +0.2 | Julia Letlow (R) 46.1% Jamie Davis (D) 46.3% |
2020: Bill Cassidy (R) 59.3%, Adrian Perkins (D) 19% |
| Maine | Toss-upJackson 64% - 37 polls, 26 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Jackson +2.5Jackson +0.9 in 30 days | Susan Collins (R) 47.1% Troy Jackson (D) 49.6% |
2020: Susan Collins (R) 51%, Sara Gideon (D) 42.4% |
| Ohio (special) | Toss-upBrown 64% - 40 polls, 26 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Brown +2.6Brown -1.1 in 30 days | Jon Husted (R) 45.5% Sherrod Brown (D) 48.1% |
2022: JD Vance (R) 53%, Tim Ryan (D) 46.9% |
| Kansas | Toss-upHamilton 65% - 19 polls, 14 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Hamilton +3.0Hamilton +1.5 in 30 days | Roger Marshall (R) 45.8% Adam Hamilton (D) 48.8% |
2020: Roger Marshall (R) 53.2%, Barbara Bollier (D) 41.8% |
| Texas | Lean DTalarico 68% - 63 polls, 39 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Talarico +3.0Talarico +0.8 in 30 days | Ken Paxton (R) 45.7% James Talarico (D) 48.7% |
2020: John Cornyn (R) 53.5%, MJ Hegar (D) 43.9% |
| South Carolina | Lean RGraham 66% - 18 polls, 11 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Graham +1.1Graham -1.5 in 30 days | Darline Graham (R) 46.6% Annie Andrews (D) 45.5% |
2020: Lindsey Graham (R) 54.5%, Jaime Harrison (D) 44.2% |
| Nebraska | Lean RRicketts 71% - 15 polls, 10 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Ricketts +1.9Ricketts +2.3 in 30 days | Pete Ricketts (R) 47.4% Dan Osborn (I) 45.5% |
2024: Pete Ricketts (R) 62.6%, Preston Love Jr. (D) 37.4% |
| Michigan | Lean DEl-Sayed 78% - 53 polls, 37 pollsters, 1 pt to R | El-Sayed +4.3El-Sayed +1.2 in 30 days | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 49.5% Mike Rogers (R) 45.2% |
2020: Gary Peters (D) 49.9%, John James (R) 48.2% |
| Minnesota | Lean DFlanagan 76% - 22 polls, 18 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Flanagan +4.7Flanagan +1.0 in 30 days | Peggy Flanagan (D) 48.5% Michele Tafoya (R) 43.8% |
2020: Tina Smith (D) 48.8%, Jason Lewis (R) 43.5% |
| New Hampshire | Likely DPappas 84% - 16 polls, 11 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Pappas +6.7Pappas +0.5 in 30 days | Chris Pappas (D) 50.2% John E. Sununu (R) 43.5% |
2020: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 56.7%, Corky Messner (R) 41% |
| Idaho | Lean RRisch 79% - 7 polls, 5 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Risch +5.2Risch +4.3 in 30 days | Jim Risch (R) 46.6% Todd Achilles (I) 41.4% |
2020: Jim Risch (R) 62.6%, Paulette Jordan (D) 33.3% |
| Florida (special) | Safe RMoody 95% - 29 polls, 20 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Moody +6.2Moody -0.3 in 30 days | Ashley Moody (R) 49.5% Angie Nixon (D) 43.3% |
2022: Marco Rubio (R) 57.7%, Val Demings (D) 41.3% |
| Georgia | Likely DOssoff 93% - 15 polls, 11 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Ossoff +9.6Ossoff +0.6 in 30 days | Jon Ossoff (D) 51.9% Mike Collins (R) 42.3% |
2020: Jon Ossoff (D) 50.6%, David Perdue (R) 49.4% |
| North Carolina | Safe DCooper 96% - 32 polls, 21 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Cooper +10.4Cooper +0.9 in 30 days | Michael Whatley (R) 41.9% Roy Cooper (D) 52.3% |
2020: Thom Tillis (R) 48.7%, Cal Cunningham (D) 46.9% |
| Mississippi | Likely RHyde-Smith 94% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | R+9.3 (swing estimate) | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) Scott Colom (D) |
2020: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 54.1%, Mike Espy (D) 44.1% |
| Montana | Likely RAlme 93% - 14 polls, 11 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Alme +9.3Alme -5.7 in 30 days | Kurt Alme (R) 38.0% Alani Bankhead (D) 17.9% |
2020: Steve Daines (R) 55%, Steve Bullock (D) 45% |
| Arkansas | Likely RCotton 93% - 6 polls, 4 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Cotton +10.5Cotton +2.8 in 30 days | Tom Cotton (R) 50.8% Hallie Shoffner (D) 40.3% |
2020: Tom Cotton (R) 66.5%, Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) 33.5% |
| Illinois | Safe DStratton 96% - 4 polls, 3 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Stratton +12.9 | Juliana Stratton (D) 54.2% Don Tracy (R) 41.3% |
2020: Dick Durbin (D) 54.9%, Mark Curran (R) 38.9% |
| South Dakota | Safe RRounds 98% - 10 polls, 9 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Rounds +10.9Rounds +7.4 in 30 days | Mike Rounds (R) 51.7% Brian Bengs (I) 40.8% |
2020: Mike Rounds (R) 65.7%, Dan Ahlers (D) 34.3% |
| Virginia | Safe DWarner 98% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | D+15.7 (swing estimate) | Mark Warner (D) Bert Mizusawa (R) |
2020: Mark Warner (D) 56%, Daniel Gade (R) 43.9% |
| New Jersey | Safe DBooker 99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | D+15.8 (swing estimate) | Incumbent renominated | 2020: Cory Booker (D) 57.2%, Rik Mehta (R) 40.9% |
| Alabama | Safe RMoore 99% - 5 polls, 5 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Moore +15.8 | Barry Moore (R) 52.1% Everett Wess (D) 36.3% |
2020: Tommy Tuberville (R) 60.1%, Doug Jones (D) 39.7% |
| New Mexico | Safe DLuján 98% - 4 polls, 3 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Luján +18.1 | Ben Ray Luján (D) 54.9% Larry Marker (R) 36.8% |
2020: Ben Ray Luján (D) 51.7%, Mark Ronchetti (R) 45.6% |
| Kentucky | Safe RBarr >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | R+16.5 (swing estimate) | Andy Barr (R) Charles Booker (D) |
2020: Mitch McConnell (R) 57.8%, Amy McGrath (D) 38.2% |
| Colorado | Safe DHickenlooper >99% - 4 polls, 4 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Hickenlooper +19.4 | John Hickenlooper (D) 56.6% Mark Baisley (R) 37.2% |
2020: John Hickenlooper (D) 53.5%, Cory Gardner (R) 44.2% |
| Tennessee | Safe RHagerty >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | R+19.0 (swing estimate) | Bill Hagerty (R) Marquita Bradshaw (D) |
2020: Bill Hagerty (R) 62.2%, Marquita Bradshaw (D) 35.2% |
| Oregon | Safe DMerkley >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | D+24.2 (swing estimate) | Incumbent renominated | 2020: Jeff Merkley (D) 56.9%, Jo Rae Perkins (R) 39.3% |
| Oklahoma | Safe RHern >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | R+22.3 (swing estimate) | Kevin Hern (R) N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) |
2020: Jim Inhofe (R) 62.9%, Abby Broyles (D) 32.8% |
| Delaware | Safe DCoons >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | D+24.6 (swing estimate) | Incumbent renominated | 2020: Chris Coons (D) 59.4%, Lauren Witzke (R) 37.9% |
| Massachusetts | Safe DMarkey >99% - 6 polls, 5 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Markey +25.1 | Ed Markey (D) 55.0% John Deaton (R) 29.9% |
2020: Ed Markey (D) 66.2%, Kevin O'Connor (R) 33% |
| Rhode Island | Safe DReed >99% - 4 polls, 3 pollsters, 1 pt to R | Reed +28.0 | Jack Reed (D) 58.2% Raymond McKay (R) 30.2% |
2020: Jack Reed (D) 66.6%, Allen Waters (R) 33.4% |
| West Virginia | Safe RCapito >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | R+32.0 (swing estimate) | Incumbent renominated | 2020: Shelley Moore Capito (R) 70.3%, Paula Jean Swearengin (D) 27% |
| Wyoming | Safe RHageman >99% - swing estimate, 1 pt to R | R+35.9 (swing estimate) | Incumbent retiring | 2020: Cynthia Lummis (R) 73.1%, Merav Ben-David (D) 26.9% |
Generic ballot
Generic ballot average: Democrats 51.3%, Republicans 42.9%
Democratic
51.3%
+2.3 in 30 days
Republican
42.9%
+2.0 in 30 days
Margin
D+8.4
105 polls. Every poll and its source.
House
House projection: Democrats 230, Republicans 205
Generic ballot average: Democratic 51.3%, Republican 42.9%. Chart and every poll.
If the generic ballot is different
| Generic ballot | Democratic seats | Range |
|---|---|---|
| D+6 | 222 | 202 - 242 |
| D+8.4 our average | 230 | 210 - 250 |
| D+10 | 235 | 215 - 255 |
| D+12 | 242 | 222 - 262 |
| D+14 | 248 | 228 - 268 |
Same model at other margins: the final-week polls ran from D+6 to D+14.
Model inputs
- Two-party generic ballot
- D 54.5%
- Two-party margin
- D+8.9
- Seats per point of vote
- 6.3
- Fit
- 2006 - 2024 House results
- 2026 redistricting
- R+9 seats (9 states)
Trump approval
Approve 38.1%, disapprove 59.1%
Net -21.0 on 45 polls. Chart and national polls.
Early voting
North Carolina: 2,828,284 ballots accepted
Pennsylvania: 1,118,399 mail ballots returned
By voter's party registration, to 3 November 2026.
Ballots cast so far, 2026 and 2024
| State | 2026 so far | 2024, same point |
|---|---|---|
| TexasEarly votes, in person and mail, full early voting period, to 30 Oct 2026 | 7,711,665 | More than 9 million |
| FloridaEarly in person and mail returned, to 2 Nov 2026 | 5,465,190 | - |
| North CarolinaBallots accepted, to 2 Nov 2026 | 2,828,284 | 4,496,546 |
| GeorgiaEarly in person and absentee, to 29 Oct 2026 | More than 2.4 million | - |
| MichiganAbsentee and early in person, to 30 Oct 2026 | More than 2 million | - |
| ColoradoBallots returned, to 1 Nov 2026 | 1,599,988 | 2,092,035 |
| PennsylvaniaMail ballots returned, to 3 Nov 2026 | 1,118,399 | 1,960,226 |
| MaineAbsentee ballots accepted, to 2 Nov 2026 | 302,353 | - |
Daily charts, party registration and sources for each state.
Governors
36 governor races
Safe D 13 - Likely D 4 - Lean D 2 - Toss-up 4 - Lean R 2 - Likely R 3 - Safe R 8. Governor map and polls.
Latest polls
| Race | Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Spread | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Senate | Keating Research D | 2 Nov 2026 | 400 LV | Hickenlooper 58%Baisley 37% | Hickenlooper +21 | Pollster |
| Colorado Governor | Keating Research D | 2 Nov 2026 | 400 LV | Weiser 59%Marx 33% | Weiser +26 | Pollster |
| Generic ballot | John Zogby Strategies | 2 Nov 2026 | 1,001 LV | Dem 53%Rep 47% | Dem +6 | Pollster |
| Trump approval | John Zogby Strategies | 2 Nov 2026 | 1,001 LV | Disapprove 55%Approve 43% | Disapprove +12 | Pollster |
| Florida Senate (special) | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Moody 51%Nixon 44% | Moody +7 | Pollster |
| Colorado Senate | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Hickenlooper 57%Baisley 35% | Hickenlooper +22 | Pollster |
| Georgia Senate | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Ossoff 52%Collins 42% | Ossoff +10 | Pollster |
| Georgia Senate | InsiderAdvantage R | 2 Nov 2026 | 2,500 LV | Ossoff 53%Collins 46% | Ossoff +7 | Pollster |
| Illinois Senate | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Stratton 53%Tracy 41% | Stratton +12 | Pollster |
| Michigan Senate | John Zogby Strategies | 2 Nov 2026 | 1,001 LV | El-Sayed 51%Rogers 49% | El-Sayed +2 | Pollster |
| New Mexico Senate | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Luján 56%Marker 37% | Luján +19 | Pollster |
| Texas Senate | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Talarico 49%Paxton 46%Brown 1% | Talarico +3 | Pollster |
| Colorado Governor | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Weiser 53%Marx 38% | Weiser +15 | Pollster |
| Florida Governor | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Donalds 48%Jolly 44% | Donalds +4 | Pollster |
| Georgia Governor | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Bottoms 46%Jackson 45% | Bottoms +1 | Pollster |
| Georgia Governor | InsiderAdvantage R | 2 Nov 2026 | 2,500 LV | Jackson 49%Bottoms 49% | Tie | Pollster |
| Illinois Governor | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Pritzker 57%Bailey 36% | Pritzker +21 | Pollster |
| New Mexico Governor | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Haaland 51%Hull 44% | Haaland +7 | Pollster |
| Texas Governor | Research Co. | 2 Nov 2026 | 450 LV | Abbott 46%Hinojosa 44%Dixon 2% | Abbott +2 | Pollster |
| Trump approval | Reuters/Ipsos | 2 Nov 2026 | 1,357 RV | Disapprove 63%Approve 36% | Disapprove +27 | Pollster |
Poll data from Wikipedia (CC BY-SA 4.0); Senate and House composition from senate.gov and clerk.house.gov; boundaries from the US Census Bureau via us-atlas.